# Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027

> Above 40 leads at 85%, runner-up 75% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuzavg
Updated: 2026-07-10T22:20:48.965Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Above 40 at 85%
- Runner-up: Above 50 at 75%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 40 | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a40 |
| Above 50 | 75¢ | — | $697 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a50 |
| Above 60 | 50¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a60 |
| Above 70 | 27¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a70 |
| Above 80 | 22¢ | +11pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a80 |
| Above 90 | 19¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a90 |
| Above 100 | 12¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 40 | Above 50 | Above 60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 78 | 77 | 66 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · Above 80 +11pp 53→64¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 68% probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz will exceed 40 between July 2025 and January 2027. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and shipping traffic; transit volumes serve as a barometer for regional stability and petroleum market conditions. The current probability reflects expectations that shipping activity will remain near or above historical averages during the period, despite geopolitical risks and sanctions dynamics in the Middle East. Market pricing shows declining probability at higher thresholds (53% above 50 calls, 35% above 90 calls), suggesting traders expect moderate traffic rather than surge conditions. Resolution hinges on actual IMF PortWatch data releases during the evaluation window, with key drivers including escalation or de-escalation of regional tensions, global energy demand, and alternative routing decisions by shipping operators.

### Key factors

- IMF PortWatch historical baseline: establish whether 40 transits per 7-day period represents above-average, typical, or below-average traffic to contextualize the 68% probability
- Geopolitical risk events: any new sanctions, military incidents, or shipping attacks in the region between now and January 2027 that could force route changes or temporarily reduce traffic
- Global oil demand trends: changes in crude consumption and refining activity drive volume through the Strait; economic recession or demand destruction would pressure the metric downward
- Alternative routing adoption: degree to which operators use Suez Canal alternatives or bypass routes affects whether Hormuz volumes maintain or contract below 40
- Data quality and measurement: confirm that IMF PortWatch methodology remains consistent throughout the evaluation period and that data availability does not create gaps in the 7-day moving average calculation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuzavg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hormuzavg
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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