# Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuzmax
Updated: 2026-07-09T21:20:50.854Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6 | 11¢ | −31pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-july-6-be-the-day-with-the-most-transit-calls-kalshi-kxhormuzmax-26jul12-jul06 |
| July 7 | 77¢ | +39pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-july-7-be-the-day-with-the-most-transit-calls-kalshi-kxhormuzmax-26jul12-jul07 |
| July 8 | 5¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-july-8-be-the-day-with-the-most-transit-calls-kalshi-kxhormuzmax-26jul12-jul08 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 11 |
| 2026-07-07 | 12 |
| 2026-07-08 | 24 |
| 2026-07-09 | 27 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · July 7 +39pp 29→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · July 6 +32pp 8→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · July 6 −31pp 40→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · July 7 +17pp 12→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · July 8 −8pp 12→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves based on which single day between July 6-12 records the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint. The 14% probability for July 10 reflects relatively even distribution across the week, with no day commanding overwhelming odds. Transit volumes through the strait fluctuate based on shipping schedules, port congestion, geopolitical events, and weather patterns. July 10 sits in the middle of the measurement window, neither advantaged by typical week-start clustering nor disadvantaged by weekend effects. The contract resolves definitively once official transit data becomes available post-week, making this primarily a question of predicting routine maritime traffic patterns rather than rare events. Current low trading volume across all daily contracts suggests limited conviction among traders about any particular day's dominance.

### Key factors

- Historical shipping patterns show whether midweek days (July 9-10) typically exceed early-week transit volumes
- Scheduled port maintenance or reported congestion at major Gulf terminals during this specific week
- Geopolitical developments affecting transit risk premiums or voluntary routing decisions by shipping companies
- Weather conditions in the strait during July 9-10 relative to adjacent days
- Current order books and vessel scheduling data for major shipping lines operating through the corridor

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuzmax
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hormuzmax
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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