# Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuznorm
Updated: 2026-06-15T07:20:52.848Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 86%
- Runner-up: Before Apr 1, 2027 at 84%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $425K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 86¢ | +3pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270701 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 84¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270401 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 75¢ | +3pp | $35K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270101 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 71¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b261201 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 71¢ | +6pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b261101 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 63¢ | +1pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b261001 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 57¢ | ±0 | $25K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260901 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 48¢ | ±0 | $167K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 17¢ | ±0 | $156K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260701 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 1, 2027 | Before Apr 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 85 | 84 | 76 |
| 2026-06-05 | 79 | 77 | 63 |
| 2026-06-12 | 79 | 79 | 68 |
| 2026-06-13 | 82 | 81 | 74 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 77 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Before Aug 1, 2026 +13pp 27→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Before Sep 1, 2026 +13pp 35→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +10pp 44→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Before Sep 1, 2026 +9pp 48→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +9pp 54→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 43% chance that ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz will average 60 or more per day over a 7-day period at some point before April 1, 2027. The probability reflects near-term uncertainty about whether transit volumes will reach this threshold soon, given that current weekly data shows mixed signals—some contracts pricing near-term achievement (May–June) at very low odds (5–38%), while longer-dated resolution points suggest modest confidence overall. The main factors are geopolitical tension in the region, which can disrupt shipping patterns, and seasonal shipping demand cycles. Resolution depends entirely on IMF PortWatch data releases, which measure actual daily transits; the next critical observation window is the upcoming weeks in May and June 2026, where contract pricing suggests skepticism about near-term volume spikes.

### Key factors

- Current 7-day moving average transit levels relative to 60 calls/day threshold; near-term contracts (May 15, June 1) price at 5–15% suggesting recent data below 60
- Geopolitical incidents or sanctions affecting regional shipping routes could abruptly alter transit volumes either upward (rerouting) or downward (disruption)
- Seasonal shipping demand patterns and maintenance schedules that influence typical Hormuz transit frequencies throughout the year
- IMF PortWatch reporting methodology and data lag; verification depends on actual published figures for consecutive 7-day periods
- Regional tensions or military activity that could trigger insurance premium spikes, thereby deterring or redirecting shipping traffic through the Strait

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuznorm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hormuznorm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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