# Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026

> Above 5 leads at 87%, runner-up 56% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuzpeak
Updated: 2026-07-27T01:20:51.225Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: Above 5 at 87%
- Runner-up: Above 10 at 56%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5 | 87¢ | +56pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26aug02-t5 |
| Above 10 | 56¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26jul26-t10 |
| Above 10 | 56¢ | −27pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26aug02-t10 |
| Above 15 | 25¢ | −10pp | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26aug02-t15 |
| Above 20 | 11¢ | −9pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26aug02-t20 |
| Above 15 | 10¢ | −5pp | $328 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26jul26-t15 |
| Above 25 | 10¢ | +2pp | $141 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26aug02-t25 |
| Above 30 | 6¢ | +2pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26aug02-t30 |
| Above 25 | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-highest-single-day-number-of-transit-call-kalshi-kxhormuzpeak-26jul26-t25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 5 | Above 10 | Above 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | — | 72 | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 52 | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 26 | 73 | 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | 82 | 72 | 46 |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — | 19 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-25 · Above 5 +56pp 26→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Above 10 +38pp 8→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Above 15 +31pp 4→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Above 10 −27pp 46→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Above 10 +18pp 55→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing a 72% probability that at least one day during July 13-19, 2026 will see more than 10 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint. This assessment reflects typical traffic patterns in a strategically important waterway where daily transit counts fluctuate based on global oil demand, shipping schedules, and geopolitical conditions. The high probability suggests traders expect above-average activity during this specific week, possibly driven by seasonal demand or anticipated industrial operations. The probability would decline if actual daily transits consistently fall below 10, and would increase if geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions prompt additional shipping. Resolution depends on official transit data published by maritime monitoring sources, making the outcome directly observable but subject to reporting timing. The steep price gradations across the contract ladder (72% above 10, 41% above 20, 19% above 30) indicate uncertainty about how much higher peak traffic might climb during the week.

### Key factors

- Daily Hormuz transits typically range 20-30+ vessels; achieving a peak above 10 in a single week is baseline normal; the 72% reflects expectation of standard seasonal traffic rather than anomaly
- Global crude oil prices and refinery utilization rates in the week of July 13-19 will directly influence shipping volumes; lower prices or reduced demand would push actual transits downward
- Geopolitical incidents, port closures, or shipping delays in preceding weeks could create congestion that releases into this observation window, artificially inflating a single day's count
- Official transit tallies come from vessel monitoring systems and maritime authorities; data quality and reporting lag could affect resolution clarity if counts fall near the 10-threshold
- The 31% probability on the runner-up contract (above 20) shows traders assign significant mass to outcomes between 10-20 transits, suggesting consensus uncertainty about whether this week runs hot or normal

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuzpeak
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hormuzpeak
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.