# 80: Above 80

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 16 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuztrafficw
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:49.243Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $844K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78,250 or above | 94¢ | −17pp | $129K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-3-2026-78250-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0317-t78249.99 |
| $78,500 or above | 82¢ | −12pp | $101K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-3-2026-78500-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0317-t78499.99 |
| $78,750 or above | 44¢ | −13pp | $77K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-3-2026-78750-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0317-t78749.99 |
| Before May 15, 2026 | 4¢ | ±0 | $75K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260515 |
| $79,000 or above | 16¢ | −11pp | $73K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-3-2026-79000-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0317-t78999.99 |
| $78,000 or above | 96¢ | −13pp | $72K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-3-2026-78000-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0317-t77999.99 |
| Above 4.460 | 27¢ | −13pp | $53K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4460-above-4460-kalshi-kxaaagasw-26may04-4.460 |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 18¢ | −3pp | $48K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260601 |
| Above 4.470 | 4¢ | ±0 | $45K | kalshi | /markets/will-average-gas-prices-be-above-4470-above-4470-kalshi-kxaaagasw-26may04-4.470 |
| $77,750 or above | 97¢ | −11pp | $38K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-3-2026-77750-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0317-t77749.99 |
| $79,250 or above | 4¢ | −7pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-3-2026-79250-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0317-t79249.99 |
| Before July 2026 | 10¢ | +2pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-100000-by-july-1-2026-at-120-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-june |
| Above $200000 | 5¢ | −1pp | $23K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-200000-by-jan-1-2027-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtc2026200-27jan01-200000 |
| $81,000 or above | 22¢ | −3pp | $23K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-may-8-2026-81000-or-above-kalshi-kxbtcd-26may0817-t80999.99 |
| Spirit Airlines | 7¢ | −22pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-spi |
| Before June 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-100000-by-june-1-2026-at-120-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-may |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 24 |
| 2026-04-26 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Above 4.460 +43pp 45→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Above 4.460 +40pp 5→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Spirit Airlines −22pp 37→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 4.460 −20pp 88→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · $78,250 or above −17pp 68→51¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hormuztrafficw
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hormuztrafficw

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.