# Which city will host the 2026 RNC midterm convention

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hostrncconv
Updated: 2026-07-03T13:20:51.423Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 96¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-city-will-host-the-2026-rnc-midterm-conventi-kalshi-kxhostrncconv-26-dall |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 77 |
| 2026-06-25 | 87 |
| 2026-06-30 | 94 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The Republican National Committee will select a city to host its 2026 midterm convention. Currently, Dallas is priced at 81%, substantially ahead of Las Vegas at 12% and Detroit at 3%. The RNC typically rotates convention locations and considers factors like existing venue capacity, state political importance, and logistics. Dallas has multiple large convention facilities and is located in a key battleground state. The main driver of the current pricing is likely Dallas's established infrastructure and historical precedent of the RNC visiting major Texas cities. The resolution depends on an official RNC announcement, which typically occurs 12-24 months before the convention date. Any scheduling conflicts, venue availability issues, or strategic shifts in party priorities could alter these odds before a final decision is made.

### Key factors

- RNC must announce the 2026 midterm convention host city; announcement date and timing unknown but typically follows party leadership decisions
- Dallas has major convention facilities (Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center, American Airlines Center) and Texas is a battleground state with significant delegate representation
- Las Vegas offers substantial venue capacity and geographic diversity, but competes with Dallas on logistics and state electoral importance
- Detroit represents a Rust Belt alternative but currently prices at 3%, suggesting low market confidence relative to the two frontrunners
- No scheduled announcement or official bidding process appears imminent as of June 2026, leaving significant uncertainty about the decision timeline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hostrncconv
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hostrncconv
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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