# Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 17 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hottest-year
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.409Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-01

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 45% / Polymarket 35% — 10pp spread
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29¢ | −3pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0xe67f4d31f0eba1b009b49d7a7739b2a5f53a2d7d979a0902b465a510492c33bb |
| 6 or lower | 4¢ | ±0 | $689 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0x284c11566675c2764eeca776d2e0834fefc1430514b7b55adbb690d2fbbf678e |
| 4 | 5¢ | +1pp | $346 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0x6c8a4426ea2278ce7936c770cbf4d66ad2dead1c8ee50e90232e0379f6f42562 |
| Hottest | 32¢ | +1pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-2026-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-hottest-kalshi-kxgtemp-27-p0 |
| Hottest | 31¢ | ±0 | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-2026-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-hottest-kalshi-kxgtemp-26-p0 |
| 2 | 61¢ | −2pp | $145 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0x376f0a5ce8279b4bf840018217487848634b686a9669c8c2d79eca67410b1aeb |
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | 78¢ | −9pp | $37 | polymarket | /markets/will-any-month-of-2026-be-the-hottest-on-record-polymarket-0x37402c8c83fc8b43193b19275e760e66c75dea14406977d47a73241c526b6cf2 |
| Choosin' Texas | 74¢ | +26pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-choosi-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-cho |
| The Fate of Ophelia | 91¢ | −42pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-the-fa-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-fat |
| Taylor Swift | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-1-on-the-ifpis-biggest-sellin-kalshi-kxranklistifpiartist-27feb28-tay |
| Ariana Grande | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-be-1-on-the-ifpis-biggest-selli-kalshi-kxranklistifpiartist-27feb28-ari |
| Man I Need | 82¢ | −46pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-man-i-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-man |
| I Just Might | 86¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-i-just-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-iju |
| Aperture | 38¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-apertu-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-ape |
| Eminem | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eminem-be-1-on-the-ifpis-biggest-selling-glob-kalshi-kxranklistifpiartist-27feb28-emi |
| So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 17¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-so-eas-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-soe |
| BTS | 66¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bts-be-1-on-the-ifpis-biggest-selling-global-kalshi-kxranklistifpiartist-27feb28-bts |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 57 |
| 2026-05-25 | 49 |
| 2026-06-01 | 39 |
| 2026-06-08 | 32 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Man I Need −46pp 79→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · The Fate of Ophelia −42pp 88→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Aperture −33pp 51→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Choosin' Texas −29pp 77→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Choosin' Texas +26pp 48→74¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hottest-year
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hottest-year

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.