# 1

> 0 leads at 91%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houseexpel
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.772Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: 0 at 91%
- Runner-up: 1 at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-us-house-representatives-expell-kalshi-kxhouseexpel-26jun01-t0 |
| 1 | 8¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-us-house-representatives-expell-kalshi-kxhouseexpel-26jun01-t1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 | 1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 63 | 10 |
| 2026-04-21 | 84 | 7 |
| 2026-04-24 | 84 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 91 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that no U.S. House Representatives will be expelled between now and June 2026. House expulsion requires a two-thirds supermajority vote and is historically rare—only five members have been expelled since 1900. The current 91% price suggests markets view expulsion as unlikely over the next month, but not impossible. The main factor supporting this level is the high procedural bar for expulsion and the absence of ongoing formal expulsion proceedings as of early May 2026. However, expulsion probabilities could shift rapidly if new misconduct allegations emerge against sitting members or if an existing investigation reaches a critical stage. The resolution of any pending ethics investigations or the introduction of expulsion resolutions in the coming weeks would be the primary catalyst for price movement. Current low trading volume ($5 in 24 hours) indicates limited market attention to this outcome.

### Key factors

- No active expulsion resolutions have been introduced or are pending as of early May 2026
- House expulsion requires a 2/3 supermajority vote and has occurred only 5 times since 1900
- Any new credible expulsion-triggering allegations or ethics findings in the next month could materially increase the probability of at least one expulsion
- The 91% price implies roughly a 1-in-11 chance of at least one expulsion by June 30, 2026
- Low 24-hour trading volume ($5) suggests minimal market conviction or attention to this binary outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houseexpel
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=houseexpel

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.