# Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 7 contracts — refreshed 38 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housepopvotemargin
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.931Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | 17¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-margin-of-victory-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b11 |
| Republicans win | 14¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-the-2026-us-house-of-represen-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b50 |
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 7¢ | +1pp | $705 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-margin-of-victory-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b13 |
| Democrats, 2 to 4% | 4¢ | +1pp | $467 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-margin-of-victory-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b3 |
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | 9¢ | −1pp | $246 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-margin-of-victory-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b5 |
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | 25¢ | +1pp | $230 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-margin-of-victory-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b9 |
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | 20¢ | +1pp | $213 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-margin-of-victory-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 14 |
| 2026-06-11 | 17 |
| 2026-06-19 | 12 |
| 2026-06-25 | 6 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract resolves based on the final Democratic advantage in total votes cast for House candidates nationwide in November 2026, specifically whether that margin falls between 14% and 16%. Currently priced at 14%, this reflects relatively low confidence in this narrow outcome band. The probability is driven primarily by baseline assumptions about midterm dynamics and historical voting patterns. A 14-16% Democratic margin would represent an exceptionally strong performance, roughly double the party's typical midterm gains. Movement in this probability will depend on economic conditions through fall 2026, approval ratings, and seat-by-seat polling trends as the election approaches. The November 2026 general election will definitively resolve whether this outcome occurs.

### Key factors

- Historical midterm House popular vote margins have rarely exceeded 8-10%, making a 14-16% Democratic margin a statistical outlier requiring substantial favorable conditions
- Economic indicators and presidential approval ratings in summer-fall 2026 will significantly influence voter turnout composition and swing-voter behavior
- Real-time polling averages from September through October 2026 will provide the most direct signal; a 5+ point shift in aggregate data would meaningfully alter this probability
- State-level redistricting effects from 2022 remain locked in, creating a fixed baseline that constrains how much the national popular vote can shift from current structural positioning
- The specific definition requires precision within a 2-point band rather than a directional outcome, meaning uncertainty about the exact margin compounds at this probability level

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housepopvotemargin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=housepopvotemargin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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