# Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 55% across 19 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houserace
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:51.476Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 55% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party | 16¢ | ±0 | $533 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-va-05-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-va05-26-r |
| Republican party | 14¢ | +2pp | $421 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-la-02-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-la02-26-r |
| Republican party | 69¢ | +1pp | $286 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-tx-23-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-tx23-26-r |
| Republican party | 41¢ | +1pp | $224 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-ia-02-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-ia02-26-r |
| Republican party | 88¢ | ±0 | $223 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-nd-al-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-ndal-26-r |
| Democratic party | 27¢ | ±0 | $164 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-ny-21-democ-kalshi-kxhouserace-ny21-26-d |
| Republican party | 3¢ | — | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-ky-03-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-ky03-26-r |
| Democratic party | 94¢ | −1pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-tx-07-democ-kalshi-kxhouserace-tx07-26-d |
| Democratic party | 15¢ | ±0 | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-oh-06-democ-kalshi-kxhouserace-oh06-26-d |
| Republican party | 85¢ | ±0 | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-ks-04-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-ks04-26-r |
| Republican party | 92¢ | −2pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-mi-09-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-mi09-26-r |
| Republican party | 33¢ | +5pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-fl-25-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-fl25-26-r |
| Republican party | 95¢ | −1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-wy-al-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-wyal-26-r |
| Democratic party | 16¢ | ±0 | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-fl-04-democ-kalshi-kxhouserace-fl04-26-d |
| Republican party | 73¢ | +2pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-ky-06-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-ky06-26-r |
| Republican party | 43¢ | +26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-sc-06-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-sc06-26-r |
| Republican party | 86¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-tx-26-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-tx26-26-r |
| Republican party | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-nc-14-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-nc14-26-r |
| Republican party | 78¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-win-the-house-race-for-nc-09-repub-kalshi-kxhouserace-nc09-26-r |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 38 |
| 2026-04-19 | 61 |
| 2026-04-26 | 62 |
| 2026-05-03 | 69 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Republican party +26pp 16→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Republican party +18pp 2→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Republican party −10pp 95→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Democratic party +10pp 5→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Republican party −9pp 23→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a near-even chance that the Democratic candidate will win Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district in the upcoming election. At 49%, the market is essentially split, suggesting the race remains highly competitive with no clear frontrunner. The current level likely reflects the district's historical voting patterns, recent polling data, and candidate quality. Factors pushing the probability up would include strong Democratic turnout models or favorable candidate positioning, while Republican momentum or demographic shifts in the district could lower it. The primary driver of this probability will likely shift as election day approaches and more concrete campaign data becomes available.

### Key factors

- PA-14 district composition and recent election results (2020, 2022) show whether the district leans Democratic, Republican, or truly competitive
- Current polling averages and demographic data for this specific race, including registered voter composition
- Candidate profile and fundraising disparities, which historically correlate with House race competitiveness
- National political environment and generic ballot polling, which typically influences off-cycle congressional races
- Early voting or absentee ballot trends if available closer to the election date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houserace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=houserace
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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