# Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 300 Yea votes in the House

> Above 250 leads at 69%, runner-up 52% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houserussiasanction
Updated: 2026-08-24T01:20:52.038Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 250 at 69%
- Runner-up: Above 275 at 52%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 250 | 69¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-russia-sanctions-bill-receive-above-250-yea-kalshi-kxhouserussiasanction-26aug10-t250 |
| Above 275 | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-russia-sanctions-bill-receive-above-275-yea-kalshi-kxhouserussiasanction-26aug10-t275 |
| Above 300 | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-russia-sanctions-bill-receive-above-300-yea-kalshi-kxhouserussiasanction-26aug10-t300 |
| Above 325 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-russia-sanctions-bill-receive-above-325-yea-kalshi-kxhouserussiasanction-26aug10-t325 |
| Above 350 | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-russia-sanctions-bill-receive-above-350-yea-kalshi-kxhouserussiasanction-26aug10-t350 |
| Above 375 | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-russia-sanctions-bill-receive-above-375-yea-kalshi-kxhouserussiasanction-26aug10-t375 |
| Above 400 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-russia-sanctions-bill-receive-above-400-yea-kalshi-kxhouserussiasanction-26aug10-t400 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 250 | Above 275 | Above 300 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 61 | 52 | 38 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | 50 | — |
| 2026-08-18 | 67 | 51 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 63 | 49 | 41 |
| 2026-08-22 | 69 | 51 | 41 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-19 · Above 325 +8pp 19→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 350 +7pp 11→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 250 −6pp 69→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 300 −4pp 45→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 250 +3pp 63→66¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract chain measures whether a Russia-focused sanctions bill will pass the House with at least 300 affirmative votes. The 42¢ price on the 300-vote threshold reflects moderate confidence such legislation will advance, though with meaningful uncertainty about whether it will secure a true bipartisan supermajority rather than a narrower partisan majority. Support hinges on the severity of geopolitical developments, the bill's specific provisions, and whether it attracts cooperation across the aisle. The 29-point gap between the 250-vote baseline (71%) and the 300-vote target (42%) suggests traders expect the bill to clear a simple majority but doubt it will reach near-consensus. Key resolution drivers include whether the bill reaches a House floor vote before Congress adjourns, the composition of any measure that advances, and real-time shifts in US-Russia relations or related sanctions debates.

### Key factors

- Current bid-ask spreads show lower confidence in 300+ votes (42¢) versus 250+ votes (71¢), indicating traders expect passage above simple majority but well below historical supermajority thresholds
- High-volume trading on the 275-vote contract (55¢, $345 24h volume) versus near-zero volume on 325+ and 350+ suggests active disagreement in the 250–300 vote band, the decision threshold
- The bill's underlying provisions and any recent Russia-related escalations will likely determine whether Democrats and Republicans align sufficiently to exceed 300 votes
- House voting dynamics often reflect party-line splits; breaking 300 votes typically requires substantial cross-party support or near-unanimous participation from both sides
- Timing of floor votes and procedural considerations before session end or recess could accelerate or delay resolution and shift trader expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houserussiasanction
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=houserussiasanction
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.