# Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be between 110 and 114.99 million

> 125 million and above leads at 27%, runner-up 20% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houseturnout
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.903Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: 125 million and above at 27%
- Runner-up: 115 to 119.99 million at 20%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125 million and above | 27¢ | −5pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-2026-us-house-turnout-be-at-least-1-kalshi-kxhouseturnout-26nov03-above125 |
| 115 to 119.99 million | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-2026-us-house-turnout-be-between-11-kalshi-kxhouseturnout-26nov03-115 |
| 120 to 124.99 million | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-2026-us-house-turnout-be-between-12-kalshi-kxhouseturnout-26nov03-120 |
| 110 to 114.99 million | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-2026-us-house-turnout-be-between-11-kalshi-kxhouseturnout-26nov03-110 |
| 105 to 109.99 million | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-2026-us-house-turnout-be-between-10-kalshi-kxhouseturnout-26nov03-105 |
| 100 to 104.99 million | 3¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-2026-us-house-turnout-be-between-10-kalshi-kxhouseturnout-26nov03-100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 125 million and above | 115 to 119.99 million | 120 to 124.99 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 28 | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 30 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 32 | 20 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 27 | — | 20 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 125 million and above −5pp 32→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves 'yes' if the November 2026 midterm election produces between 110 and 114.99 million total House votes cast. At 32% probability, traders estimate this outcome is moderately unlikely compared to higher or lower turnout scenarios. Historical House turnout has ranged from roughly 80 million (2014) to 120 million (2018), making this a mid-range band. The probability reflects uncertainty about voter enthusiasm, demographic shifts, and competitive intensity in 2026. Key drivers include early voting trends in 2024-2025, whether high-profile races energize or depress turnout, and macroeconomic conditions closer to November. The outcome resolves on election night once official vote totals are certified, typically within weeks of November 3, 2026. Current market pricing suggests traders lean toward turnout exceeding 115 million or falling below 110 million.

### Key factors

- 2024 presidential election turnout (estimated 120+ million) sets a baseline; midterm turnout typically declines 15-20% from presidential years, supporting the 110-115M band as plausible
- Early voting participation rates in 2025-2026 special elections and state contests will signal voter engagement levels before November
- Competitive House races and incumbent vulnerability vary by district; a nationalized or highly polarized environment could push total turnout above this band, while low engagement could fall below it
- Historical data shows 2018 midterms drew ~120M votes (high engagement) while 2014 drew ~83M (low engagement), making outcome distribution across all bands material
- Official vote totals are certified by states through November-December 2026; this contract resolves based on Federal Election Commission or authoritative media compilation of validated totals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houseturnout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=houseturnout
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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