# Will Democrats win 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida

> 1 leads at 90%, runner-up 69% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housewinstate
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.053Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: 1 at 90%
- Runner-up: 1 at 69%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 90¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-1-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-utd-e1 |
| 1 | 69¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-1-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-lad-e1 |
| 0 | 63¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-0-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-tnd-e0 |
| 1 | 33¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-1-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-tnd-e1 |
| 7 | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-7-seats-in-the-2026-us-house-of-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-fld-7-7 |
| 2 | 14¢ | — | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-2-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-lad-e2 |
| 4 | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-4-seats-in-the-2026-us-house-of-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-fld-4-4 |
| 6 | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-6-seats-in-the-2026-us-house-of-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-fld-6-6 |
| 8 | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-8-seats-in-the-2026-us-house-of-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-fld-8-8 |
| 0 | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-0-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-lad-e0 |
| 0 | 3¢ | — | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-0-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-utd-e0 |
| 2 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-2-seats-in-the-2026-us-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-utd-e2 |
| Above 2 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-more-than-2-seats-in-the-2026-u-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-utd-a2 |
| Above 2 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-more-than-2-seats-in-the-2026-u-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-lad-a2 |
| 5 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-5-seats-in-the-2026-us-house-of-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-fld-5-5 |
| 9 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-9-seats-in-the-2026-us-house-of-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-fld-9-9 |
| 10 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-10-seats-in-the-2026-us-house-o-kalshi-kxhousewinstate-fld-10-10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1 | 7 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | — | 17 | 12 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | 18 | 13 |
| 2026-05-06 | 90 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 33% probability that Democrats will win at least 4 seats in Florida's House elections this November. Florida has 28 House districts, and Democrats currently hold a minority. The probability reflects expectations about national and state-level dynamics: Democratic strength depends partly on whether they maintain momentum in House races overall (currently favored at 81%), while Florida-specific factors include turnout patterns, redistricting effects, and candidate quality in competitive districts. The November 2026 election will definitively resolve this outcome, with primary elections in August providing early signals about competitive races and candidate viability.

### Key factors

- Democrats currently hold 7 of 28 Florida House seats; gaining 4 more would represent significant gains in a state trending Republican
- National House forecast shows Democrats favored to win overall control at 81%, but Florida may diverge from national patterns due to state demographics and voter composition
- Florida redistricting after 2020 census created fewer Democratic-leaning districts; the map's stability since 2022 is set for 2026
- August 2026 primaries will reveal candidate recruitment success, funding levels, and early polling in competitive districts
- Turnout models and partisan lean in swing districts between Miami-Dade, central Florida, and northern regions will be critical to seat count outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housewinstate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=housewinstate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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