# Will the housing market crash?

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 1.450M. Last odds frozen 13 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housing-crash
Updated: 2026-08-24T06:40:43.573Z
Category: economy
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-21

## Headline

- Leader: — at 47%
- Runner-up: <$419K at 36%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $265K
- Resolved: Above 1.450M

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$446K | 89¢ | — | $28K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-austin-metr-polymarket-0x4fe48726db49712c240cc3febb2fc280a205c200b7b5efcfaf5af6269fbeee0d |
| <$419K | 64¢ | — | $20K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-se-polymarket-0xd15829755aed7e9262213fa2b25fb9c61dcc8b7ead735ae0dc2bf0976ec662ba |
| ↓ 10,000 | 58¢ | — | $25K | polymarket | /markets/what-level-will-the-dubai-real-estate-index-hit-in-polymarket-0xbb3392d2953eb961bc340bc096ce28100f3cbef73388f71b09d714f4f3e06621 |
| $1.089M - $1.125M | 47¢ | — | $32K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-miami-be-on-sep-polymarket-0xd00825ea777a98b6527a5734cf4611b36bda0130bf5a32863ae83232347e16a4 |
| $518K - $524K | 35¢ | — | $15K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-dc-metro-ar-polymarket-0x8acdad18d8bda8db3894b01140f727dca350f6ac0046568cea0f5cabc177be68 |
| $419K - $426K | 32¢ | — | $12K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-se-polymarket-0xba82749f3d45595fd7f141d0d49eb6cf65ce7edb61b0e93b1155072385fb5369 |
| $636K - $663K | 25¢ | — | $27K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-new-york-city-b-polymarket-0x17a8def470ebf26c11f32d43570bcb9aa92c40967202121dd8a17f56545b95c7 |
| ↑ 14,000 | 24¢ | — | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-level-will-the-dubai-real-estate-index-hit-in-polymarket-0x0018a5e573807ce12608f7baf29af19b490582c399a93606ede2d640127fec7d |
| ↑ 16,000 | 9¢ | — | $16K | polymarket | /markets/what-level-will-the-dubai-real-estate-index-hit-in-polymarket-0xcc13880d6be7c83d3251d02d04a0e19ed16b56cb3861efe52e20223a0b016e00 |
| $1.125M - $1.161M | 6¢ | — | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-miami-be-on-sep-polymarket-0x7f90ba2bc5a0cdd0636c27f9194e117b6abf7623d4b7c686a098a56055249d8a |
| ↓ 6,000 | 6¢ | — | $12K | polymarket | /markets/what-level-will-the-dubai-real-estate-index-hit-in-polymarket-0x474dd2586aef886eb03430b51fa3081dce24463ed3535977436a0a3d203e3991 |
| $470K - $478K | 5¢ | — | $12K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-austin-metr-polymarket-0x458d569c33f8ab44bef6ec9ab9b8ae56d1f25f966c7a64ea9560955442262698 |
| $446K - $454K | 4¢ | — | $16K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-austin-metr-polymarket-0xb0d62f822da0bfb86b2a15c0b329c9cb06ccd6c5c5087f43db63454fa20b4443 |
| ↓ 4,000 | 4¢ | — | $11K | polymarket | /markets/what-level-will-the-dubai-real-estate-index-hit-in-polymarket-0xcd56b43cc20a197bfb63064febfa4699058e15a28c2ec9cf8524dae5123a3b89 |
| $433K - $440K | 2¢ | — | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-se-polymarket-0x00d4c6a804afb58a85945f5233bbede95817f70f78a6a2ca99e072b451acda06 |

## Analysis

The US housing market shows signs of continued pressure, as prediction markets price a 64% probability that the national median home value will remain below $419,000 as of late September. Regional data reflects significant weakness in the Austin Metro area, where markets indicate an 89% chance that median home values will fall below $446,000. These expectations persist despite the Case-Shiller Home Price Index recording a 1.11% year-over-year increase as of May 2026.

### Key factors

- US median home value <$419K probability
- Austin housing market correction outlook
- Case-Shiller 1.11% YoY growth
- Homebuilder ETF divergence
- Interest rate sensitivity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housing-crash
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=housing-crash

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.