# Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.450M

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housingstart
Updated: 2026-08-19T14:20:59.230Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1.360M at 46%
- Runner-up: Above 1.380M at 36%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $519

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.360M | 46¢ | −4pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1360-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.360 |
| Above 1.380M | 36¢ | −1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1380-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.380 |
| Above 1.400M | 24¢ | +1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1400-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.400 |
| Above 1.420M | 20¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1420-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.420 |
| Above 1.440M | 13¢ | −4pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1440-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.440 |
| Above 1.480M | 4¢ | −5pp | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1480-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.480 |
| Above 1.460M | 4¢ | −5pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1460-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.460 |
| Above 1.500M | 3¢ | −3pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-july-2026-be-above-1500-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26aug18-t1.500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1.360M | Above 1.380M | Above 1.400M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | 52 | 40 | 28 |
| 2026-08-10 | 52 | — | 27 |
| 2026-08-11 | — | — | 29 |
| 2026-08-12 | 36 | 28 | 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | 46 | 36 | 25 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-18 · Above 1.480M −5pp 8→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 1.460M −5pp 9→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 1.360M −4pp 50→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 1.440M −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 1.500M −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 92% probability that U.S. housing starts in June 2026 will exceed 1.125 million annualized units, with a 82% probability they will reach 1.200 million. This reflects trader expectations that residential construction will remain robust through mid-2026. The current pricing suggests confidence in sustained housing demand, though the declining probabilities at higher thresholds (66% at 1.250M) indicate uncertainty about whether starts will accelerate further. Housing starts data typically reflects mortgage rates, building permit issuance, labor availability, and materials costs. The June 2026 housing starts figure will be released by the Census Bureau in early July 2026, resolving this contract. Traders appear to be pricing in a range between 1.125M–1.250M as most likely, suggesting neither a sharp contraction nor a dramatic boom in residential construction.

### Key factors

- May 2026 housing starts and building permit levels will directly signal momentum heading into the June release
- Mortgage rate movements between now and June 2026 will influence builder confidence and consumer demand for new units
- Labor shortages and material cost inflation remain quantifiable constraints on construction capacity and speed
- The 30-year fixed mortgage rate relative to historical averages will indicate affordability pressure on new construction demand
- Census Bureau housing starts release in early July 2026 will provide the definitive actual figure to resolve the contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/housingstart
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=housingstart

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.