# Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 4 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houston-dynamo-vs-san-diego-fc
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.199Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $271

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 39¢ | +9pp | $182 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-san-diego-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-sd |
| NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes | 27¢ | −1pp | $89 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-unemployment-rate-exceeds-10-mo-kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01 |
| 90+ wins | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t90 |
| 85+ wins | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t85 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 49 |
| 2026-06-12 | 25 |
| 2026-06-19 | 22 |
| 2026-06-25 | 26 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · San Diego −11pp 30→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · San Diego +9pp 22→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · San Diego +9pp 31→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · San Diego +4pp 26→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 85+ wins +4pp 24→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 17% probability reflects the market's assessment that San Diego FC will defeat Houston Dynamo in a specific matchup during the 2026 season. The low probability suggests Houston is favored, which could reflect Houston's recent performance, head-to-head history, or current roster strength. San Diego's contract prices across related markets—showing 34 cents for playoff qualification but only 7 cents for 90+ wins—indicate uncertainty about the team's overall 2026 competitiveness, which may constrain expectations for individual game outcomes. The probability would move higher if San Diego improves recent results before this matchup or if Houston faces injury concerns. The specific game date will be the primary determinant of resolution, likely occurring between March and October 2026 depending on league scheduling.

### Key factors

- San Diego's projected win total sits at 20 cents for 85+ wins and 7 cents for 90+ wins, suggesting market expects sub-.500 or modest performance relative to competitive teams
- Houston's implied favorability in this contract (83% implied win probability) reflects their relative standing in the league at time of assessment
- San Diego's 34-cent probability for playoff qualification indicates the team faces significant structural challenges that would also affect individual matchup outcomes
- The matchup outcome depends on team roster composition, injuries, and form on the specific game date, none of which are determined as of June 2026
- Contract volume is low across related San Diego markets ($27-$336 24h volume), suggesting limited market depth and potentially wider bid-ask spreads

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/houston-dynamo-vs-san-diego-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=houston-dynamo-vs-san-diego-fc

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