# How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027 — 4.8%

> 4.5% leads at 80%, runner-up 51% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-high-10-treasury-yield-go
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.070Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 4.5% at 80%
- Runner-up: 4.6% at 51%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $135

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | 80¢ | +2pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0x443e8c0d2a031fd499f0385b2ea73294fd95bad0cda220b05f6bfb20275b57e9 |
| 4.6% | 51¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0x9d98999001bd1128b5ed4a4d7e1b1db0a11ace2926fb64f5ae5e21bef6b7e6b4 |
| 4.8% | 11¢ | ±0 | $105 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0x06666ece9c22b1b22e19462794328d3846de26e7ca9d9f824eedb1fc9cb6b1a5 |
| 5.0% | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0x0e159c0d672526d1d65f524b1c512185924aac8f781b6c68549c2a17dec953e0 |
| 5.2% | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0x29ab857c87a22182c1ebb51c80f4ad5110c11676f78fac95af1942bceccbfed1 |
| 5.7% | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0x48480ff60b7cff52809bd2a60cf87879f474f9eb3036647e35e0c2362dfb74e7 |
| 5.5% | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0x1f10b1f557ab254487c22a6b7cd4b4a3b14e561c0017bc6fc58bb81f306ad558 |
| 6.0% | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-202-polymarket-0xb969b9e6e74080c23b5c707826db02ecf4325beddc8b6f3f4c1fb8e569ab4e18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 71 | 50 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | 72 | 51 | 20 |
| 2026-05-01 | 81 | 46 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 45 | 20 |
| 2026-05-07 | 80 | 56 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 63 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 6.0% −10pp 16→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 4.6% +7pp 49→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · 4.6% +7pp 56→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 4.8% −5pp 25→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 4.5% −3pp 81→78¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 80% probability reflects market expectation that the 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4.8% at some point before the end of 2026. Treasury yields respond primarily to Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data; if the Fed maintains restrictive rates longer than expected or inflation remains elevated, yields would likely rise toward this threshold. Conversely, if economic growth slows significantly or inflation cools, downward pressure could prevent reaching 4.8%. The main catalyst is the Fed's rate-setting decisions at scheduled meetings through December, alongside monthly Consumer Price Index and employment reports that influence expectations about rate cuts. Current market pricing suggests yields have room to move higher from recent levels but face some resistance.

### Key factors

- The 10-year yield as of early May 2026 appears to be trading in the 4.34-4.42% range based on near-term Kalshi contracts, leaving roughly 0.4-0.5% of potential upside to reach 4.8%
- Federal Reserve meeting decisions and forward guidance through December 2026 will be the primary driver of long-term rate expectations and thus 10-year yields
- Inflation data (CPI releases every month) and employment reports will determine whether markets expect the Fed to maintain higher rates longer or begin cutting earlier
- The 80% probability is substantially higher than the runner-up at 44%, indicating dominant market consensus rather than genuine disagreement about the outcome
- The relatively thin trading volumes in related contracts ($65-169 in 24-hour volume) suggest limited liquidity and potential for sharp repricing if major economic data surprises the market

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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