# How many Democratic House members not running in 2026 — 24–27

> 24–27 leads at 27%, runner-up 24% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.236Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Leader: 24–27 at 27%
- Runner-up: 32–35 at 24%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24–27 | 27¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2-polymarket-0xb24ae6117a3b68c79c085aa102a5054073dbd5c131db1774f1e41230ad7d67bf |
| 32–35 | 24¢ | −9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2-polymarket-0x17087f5dc3bbb1d35b3582b3354a27348faaeb4c20fdc73b09112bedf47988ed |
| 28–31 | 18¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2-polymarket-0x8b02a7cf1b24a5aa69c9eb526a22cd4518cd6906d2cb06d0c6127d80aabff988 |
| 20–23 | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2-polymarket-0x4d79d3068bdc6bbb2101462561d64c54773947d9c776d1ad637655c60ecbe5b9 |
| 40+ | 13¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2-polymarket-0x2b44c7d1b68f099a34610b45f560cff2454a926db705d1755f486bb0f78db5a3 |
| 36–39 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2-polymarket-0x3bd41128192b018ad23b6b7968d1365e05bb1dcedfc5d3df84545cee19448b7c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 24–27 | 32–35 | 28–31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 37 | 12 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 36 | 12 | 21 |
| 2026-04-23 | 29 | 13 | 23 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | — | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 13 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 29 | 10 | 17 |
| 2026-05-07 | 27 | 24 | 19 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 32–35 +23pp 10→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 32–35 −9pp 33→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 40+ −8pp 24→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 40+ +6pp 18→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 20–23 −4pp 16→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This question asks whether 24–27 Democratic House members will choose not to run for re-election in 2026. The current 28% probability suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely, with the modal expectation falling elsewhere in the range of possible retirements. Retirement decisions are driven by factors including individual member age and tenure, perceived seat vulnerability after redistricting, national political environment and party dynamics, and fundraising capacity. The actual count will be known as the filing deadline approaches and members formally announce their intentions. Historically, retirement waves correlate with midterm dynamics and perceptions of party strength; current assessments reflect uncertainty about Democratic turnout and incumbency advantages heading into 2026. The filing deadline will provide definitive resolution, making this a straightforward counting exercise once the cycle concludes.

### Key factors

- The reference class: 2022 saw 29 Democratic House retirements, suggesting whether 2026 tracks higher or lower depends on perceived party competitiveness and individual vulnerability assessments
- Filing deadline timing: formal retirement announcements cluster before the official deadline, making late 2025 and early 2026 the period when actual retirement intentions become measurable rather than speculative
- Comparative Republican retirement expectations: the related contract on 44+ Republican House retirements (32¢) versus 36–39 Republican retirements (31¢) suggests traders expect asymmetric retirement patterns between parties
- Seat-by-seat vulnerability: Democratic retirements concentrate in districts rated lean Republican or competitive; maps in states like Texas, Florida, and New York directly influence member calculus
- Age and tenure clustering: a subset of Democratic members approaching 20+ years of service or age 70+ creates a natural retirement pool independent of electoral dynamics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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