# How many Fed rate cuts in 2026 — 0 (0 bps)

> 0 (0 bps) leads at 80%, runner-up 11% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-fed-rate-cuts
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.289Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 0 (0 bps) at 80%
- Runner-up: 1 (25 bps) at 11%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $36K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 80¢ | −1pp | $21K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-0-0-bps-polymarket-0xd4e77ba6f29fc093509d24f508631abd445ecf506bbdc9c4c80e60256a318527 |
| 1 (25 bps) | 11¢ | +1pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-1-25-bps-polymarket-0x5e082f0b57f47a29044aa35b4c5658393122e659d5feae521c06b57cdd7f905c |
| 2 (50 bps) | 5¢ | −2pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026-2-50-bps-polymarket-0xe0d9f508a249e0070db06eb7d1e1fb17eb23c963f6fb722c4c3f81e23240c1cd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 (0 bps) | 1 (25 bps) | 2 (50 bps) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 21 | 13 |
| 2026-05-10 | 57 | 20 | 12 |
| 2026-05-24 | 66 | 19 | 9 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 20 | 9 |
| 2026-06-01 | 69 | 18 | 7 |
| 2026-06-06 | 78 | 8 | 5 |
| 2026-06-08 | 80 | 11 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · 1 (25 bps) −8pp 16→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 0 (0 bps) +7pp 71→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · 0 (0 bps) +3pp 78→81¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · 1 (25 bps) −3pp 19→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all during 2026, keeping rates flat throughout the year. The 26% probability reflects mixed signals: the June meeting contract shows 95% confidence in rate maintenance, suggesting near-term stability, but disagreement between venues (Kalshi at 39% vs. Polymarket at 21%) indicates genuine uncertainty about the full-year outlook. The main driver is current inflation data and labor market strength—persistent price pressures or robust employment would support holding rates steady, while recession signals or disinflation could force at least one cut. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting is the immediate catalyst, but the outcome depends heavily on inflation readings and economic data released between now and then, particularly PCE reports and employment figures.

### Key factors

- June 2026 Fed meeting shows 95% implied probability of rate maintenance on Kalshi, indicating near-term hold expectations
- 18 percentage-point gap between Kalshi (39%) and Polymarket (21%) suggests material disagreement on whether zero cuts persist all year
- Contract volume and pricing show traders assign only 3% probability to a 25bp cut at June meeting, but higher probabilities to cuts later in 2026
- Zero-cut scenario requires both inflation to remain elevated and labor market to avoid significant deterioration through year-end
- Multiple cuts scenario (2+ cuts, totaling 50bp+) trades at 13-18% combined, implying market assigns non-trivial risk to economic slowdown

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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