# How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026 — 0

> 1-100 leads at 67%, runner-up 16% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-gold-cards-trump-sell
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:20:06.883Z
Category: markets · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 1-100 at 67%
- Runner-up: 101-1k at 16%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $150

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-100 | 67¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-1-100-polymarket-0x326df6a10a6cdd74bdc1ef77906037e90b1f1d6dd1fdcbf6580aea62de094a96 |
| 101-1k | 16¢ | +1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-101-1k-polymarket-0x960324c7d2db73740836bbd97eec770fcb9b5372e5b46d98b2999fdbbd017f7a |
| 2.5k-5k | 5¢ | +1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-25k-5k-polymarket-0xfff9fd2422f8e3b878a2701c4eb1e9e182a35d9a71ec2d4233ccd2cac834f887 |
| 5k-10k | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-5k-10k-polymarket-0xcfaa155abdb4c4447285c3fb08ce11273ad7b648cbc29b26bbc99a5d50a57688 |
| >100k | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-100k-polymarket-0xa32587f6a3b3fa89d71c5648c526fe69791ef6593159e682f1ca5d4dc364f974 |
| 10k-25k | 3¢ | ±0 | $138 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-10k-25-polymarket-0xb51d73fb402680d320b8ae1a1450c17c90eb5c5061d7d406c1f86465276adb60 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1-100 | 101-1k | 2.5k-5k |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 49 | 12 | 11 |
| 2026-05-25 | 64 | 14 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 65 | 14 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 64 | 21 | 5 |
| 2026-06-03 | 69 | 21 | 5 |
| 2026-06-06 | 70 | 19 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 16 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 101-1k +6pp 15→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · 1-100 +5pp 64→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · 101-1k −4pp 19→15¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Trump will sell zero Gold Cards during 2026. The 21% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, though significant disagreement exists between venues—Kalshi traders price it at 35% while Polymarket traders at 15%. The gap suggests uncertainty about what "selling" means operationally and whether Trump's Gold Card initiative will maintain sales momentum throughout the year. Most volume concentrates on the zero-sales and 1-5 sales contracts, indicating traders view either near-complete cessation or minimal sales as most likely. The resolution hinges on transparent, publicly reported sales figures from Trump's organization for the full 2026 calendar year. Any organized sales push, marketing campaign, or licensing partnership could shift probabilities upward, while declining interest or discontinuation would reinforce the zero outcome.

### Key factors

- Sales volumes in late 2025 and early 2026 establish baseline momentum—declining trend would increase zero probability
- Definition clarity: whether "sales" includes pre-orders, gift distributions, or only direct transactions affects resolution certainty
- Competing venues price this 20 percentage points apart, suggesting material disagreement on operational or definitional factors
- Top Kalshi contract (0 sales) trades at 91¢ while 1-5 sales trades at 9¢, concentrating risk in binary outcome
- No scheduled promotional events, launch dates, or earnings reports currently drive near-term volatility in this contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=how-many-gold-cards-trump-sell
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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