# How many jobs added in April — -50k – 0

> 50k – 100k leads at 32%, runner-up 26% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-jobs-added-april
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:05:40.555Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: 50k – 100k at 32%
- Runner-up: 0 – 50k at 26%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50k – 100k | 32¢ | ±0 | $620 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-jobs-added-in-april-50k-100k-polymarket-0x88d3226158a1627d6d4c40d92740466d3e357a5553cc35967f5afb4684b37eb3 |
| 0 – 50k | 26¢ | +3pp | $643 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-jobs-added-in-april-0-50k-polymarket-0x825d9586af4340cd92d6cad298114ffa8c175d16589efa70e113853540df6c67 |
| 100k – 150k | 25¢ | +1pp | $579 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-jobs-added-in-april-100k-150k-polymarket-0x50fb3bfcc662dbed202901de3aab9f5f171627b2bf93492877a618a3230a47bd |
| 150k – 200k | 14¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-jobs-added-in-april-150k-200k-polymarket-0x73f2be733b93cb9b02ca94ce125cc21a0a8c74f6b1075a18b7855f11dfbef953 |
| <-50k | 7¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-jobs-added-in-april-50k-polymarket-0xc47368cc46824837f6f62a1dbf4721e5bbbac2a795eb6ff304b9338964605d74 |
| -50k – 0 | 3¢ | −2pp | $623 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-jobs-added-in-april-50k-0-polymarket-0x2e53bb9335239dfb9f227ca336ea2e512f9c24d543db522dcfe4f57f7b0093b2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 50k – 100k | 0 – 50k | 100k – 150k |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 33 | 32 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 | 33 | 26 |
| 2026-05-07 | 39 | 31 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 39 | — | 27 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 50k – 100k +20pp 13→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 150k – 200k −12pp 21→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · -50k – 0 −12pp 19→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 50k – 100k −10pp 33→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 50k – 100k −10pp 23→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market currently assigns 38% probability to April 2026 nonfarm payroll additions falling between -50,000 and zero — a negative or near-flat employment outcome. This reflects uncertainty around labor demand heading into late spring. The probability is shaped by two primary forces: forward-looking economic signals (consumer spending, business investment, manufacturing activity) that influence hiring momentum, and baseline seasonal patterns in April employment. The April jobs report, scheduled for early May 2026, will directly resolve this contract by showing actual nonfarm payroll change. Current pricing suggests markets view a modest positive employment gain as more likely than contraction, but weakness remains plausible given ongoing economic crosscurrents.

### Key factors

- The competing contract for 'above 50,000 jobs' trades at 61¢ while this -50k to 0 band is at 38¢, indicating net positive jobs are favored but meaningful downside risk persists
- Kalshi's 'above -100,000' contract trades near 96¢, showing near-consensus that severe employment losses are unlikely
- April seasonal adjustments typically add jobs; deviations from historical patterns or unusual labor-force movements could shift probabilities significantly
- The volume concentration in 50k-70k thresholds suggests most uncertainty clusters around whether additions reach 50,000–70,000 rather than the negative-to-zero outcome
- Manufacturing, unemployment claims data, and real-time hiring signals in the weeks before the May release will likely shift this probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=how-many-jobs-added-april

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