# How many people will Trump deport in 2026 — 300-400k

> 300-400k leads at 51%, runner-up 27% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-people-trump-deport
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.147Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 300-400k at 51%
- Runner-up: 400-500k at 27%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $230

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-400k | 51¢ | −1pp | $80 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-300-400k-polymarket-0xfe03abb00e18ab3a241a77ad5d0d170d95610c881a84422a2206c615eb696b03 |
| 400-500k | 27¢ | ±0 | $50 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-400-500k-polymarket-0x5851bae96eeb26f343fa3c39602ce4d63f58629afdbc58bf409d565425f23443 |
| 200-300k | 11¢ | ±0 | $50 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-200-300k-polymarket-0xccb52c915cd4e825665dc00c274f78aa13c047b559fae7a1b600b9d1f375746f |
| 500-600k | 7¢ | ±0 | $50 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-500-600k-polymarket-0x9cf87b067740fc6c9cd1394bda541a3a05f2cc39b047df924923bce92505354c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 300-400k | 400-500k | 200-300k |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 38 | — | — |
| 2026-04-13 | — | 25 | 16 |
| 2026-04-25 | 46 | 28 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 23 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 57 | 23 | 15 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 28 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 500-600k −12pp 21→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 300-400k −8pp 57→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 300-400k +6pp 50→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 400-500k +4pp 23→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 400-500k −3pp 26→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the Trump administration will deport between 300,000 and 400,000 people during 2026. The 21% probability reflects significant skepticism that deportations will reach this specific range, with markets pricing in either lower removal rates or numbers exceeding 400,000. Key drivers of this probability include actual deportation enforcement capacity, policy implementation timelines, and legal challenges to removal programs. The resolution will depend on verifiable deportation statistics released by immigration authorities. Uncertainty stems from unpredictability in enforcement priorities, court rulings on immigration procedures, and resource allocation across different enforcement mechanisms.

### Key factors

- Year-to-date deportation figures as of mid-2026 will indicate trajectory toward the 300-400k range versus lower or higher outcomes
- Changes to immigration enforcement funding, personnel, or operational scope announced by the administration could significantly alter removal capacity
- Federal court decisions on immigration detention or removal procedures could expand or constrain deportation operations
- The specific definition of 'deportation' used by authorities and the source data agency (ICE, CBP, etc.) will determine how borderline cases are counted
- Comparison to historical deportation levels (2020: ~185k, 2019: ~267k, 2017-2018 averages) provides baseline context for assessing feasibility of the 300-400k range

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-people-trump-deport
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=how-many-people-trump-deport
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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