# How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April — 4

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 10 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-pieces-of-legislation-trump-sign-into-law-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.719Z
Category: legislation · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 24% / Polymarket 26% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $48

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4¢ | +1pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-attorneys-general-will-trump-have-4-kalshi-kxtrumpagcount-29-4 |
| 101-1k | 16¢ | +1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-101-1k-polymarket-0x960324c7d2db73740836bbd97eec770fcb9b5372e5b46d98b2999fdbbd017f7a |
| 400-500k | 40¢ | +4pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-400-500k-polymarket-0x5851bae96eeb26f343fa3c39602ce4d63f58629afdbc58bf409d565425f23443 |
| 2.5k-5k | 5¢ | +1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-25k-5k-polymarket-0xfff9fd2422f8e3b878a2701c4eb1e9e182a35d9a71ec2d4233ccd2cac834f887 |
| 1-100 | 67¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-1-100-polymarket-0x326df6a10a6cdd74bdc1ef77906037e90b1f1d6dd1fdcbf6580aea62de094a96 |
| 2 | 46¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-attorneys-general-will-trump-have-2-kalshi-kxtrumpagcount-29-2 |
| 3 | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-attorneys-general-will-trump-have-3-kalshi-kxtrumpagcount-29-3 |
| 300-400k | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-300-400k-polymarket-0xfe03abb00e18ab3a241a77ad5d0d170d95610c881a84422a2206c615eb696b03 |
| 200-300k | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-200-300k-polymarket-0xccb52c915cd4e825665dc00c274f78aa13c047b559fae7a1b600b9d1f375746f |
| 500-600k | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-500-600k-polymarket-0x9cf87b067740fc6c9cd1394bda541a3a05f2cc39b047df924923bce92505354c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 27 |
| 2026-06-01 | 27 |
| 2026-06-08 | 26 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · 2 +14pp 32→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · 3 −11pp 33→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · 4 −7pp 10→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · 101-1k +6pp 15→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 500-600k +6pp 19→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that Trump will sign exactly four pieces of legislation into law during April 2026. The 21% aggregate probability reflects a significant disagreement between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing it 18 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants. Legislative output depends on the Republican majority's agenda priorities, procedural speed in Congress, and whether bills face significant opposition requiring compromise. The main drivers of the current probability are the baseline pace of legislative activity under unified Republican control and how contested or streamlined priority bills are. Resolution hinges on official records of bills signed in April 2026, which will be definitively documented by the White House legislative tracking system.

### Key factors

- Republican legislative priorities and scheduled floor votes in April 2026
- Average pace of bill signings in prior months under current Republican control
- Whether major legislation faces filibuster or requires 60-vote Senate consensus
- Time spent on procedural matters versus substantive legislative debate
- Cross-venue disagreement suggests material uncertainty about April legislative output that historical data alone may not resolve

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-pieces-of-legislation-trump-sign-into-law-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=how-many-pieces-of-legislation-trump-sign-into-law-april
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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