# How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30 — 6–7

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 9 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-ships-iran-successfully-target-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T08:20:12.622Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 21% / Polymarket 54% — 33pp spread
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 41¢ | +8pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-polymarket-0xaddf36ab28b5c372e4ed06a17767eefd101b363b846cf3c223efc31f8cd260a8 |
| 1+ golf major championship wins | 27¢ | +1pp | $575 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-golf-major-championships-will-scottie-sch-kalshi-kxgolfmajors-ssch26-1 |
| Above 160 | 34¢ | −3pp | $545 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-160 |
| Above 170 | 29¢ | −1pp | $144 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-170 |
| At least 14.00M bpd | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-barrels-per-day-will-the-us-produce-t-kalshi-kxbarrels-26-14.00 |
| 10 freshmen drafted | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-freshmen-players-will-be-drafted-in-the-t-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26fre-10 |
| 1-100 | 67¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026-1-100-polymarket-0x326df6a10a6cdd74bdc1ef77906037e90b1f1d6dd1fdcbf6580aea62de094a96 |
| 2+ golf major championship wins | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-golf-major-championships-will-rory-mcilro-kalshi-kxgolfmajor-26rmci-2 |
| 3+ golf major championship wins | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-golf-major-championships-will-rory-mcilro-kalshi-kxgolfmajor-26rmci-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 31 |
| 2026-05-25 | 34 |
| 2026-06-01 | 34 |
| 2026-06-08 | 33 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · 5 +8pp 31→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Above 170 −5pp 32→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 1-100 +5pp 64→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 5 +4pp 30→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Above 160 −4pp 38→34¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-ships-iran-successfully-target-april-30
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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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