# How many SpaceX launches in April — 13

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 14 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-spacex-launches-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.749Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 45% / Polymarket 14% — 31pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 140 | 80¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-140 |
| Above 180 | 25¢ | ±0 | $953 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-180 |
| Above 160 | 32¢ | −3pp | $378 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-160 |
| Above 120 | 96¢ | −1pp | $352 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-120 |
| Above 170 | 31¢ | −1pp | $234 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-170 |
| 13-14 | 5¢ | +1pp | $119 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0x77e5372080c917e45857e339ff82717efac40ad50cc0f2ea6ee30f5840fb3a0c |
| 180-199 | 9¢ | +2pp | $82 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026-180-199-polymarket-0x48b60dee314c783580a450b88f35e1ca500fd6a7410f1be6a724615f4f389ef4 |
| <5 | 60¢ | −1pp | $72 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0xacff734fd12b552ebab5edb2220cf23c19bda7728b3673a44b0c515a2c60c3d5 |
| Above 190 | 8¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-190 |
| 7-8 | 5¢ | −1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0xbab5a91f04f1ebe8fb3842b90e0b59c04b59a17f4b7ee67aeb6ad30cdba3fdae |
| 5-6 | 19¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0x1fc6ebc7c289f983c41bbbabcb8f89c40dd6e1775c3fef1d4db27345900918c2 |
| 9-10 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0xed0620605dbb5d1d7097883e9de344f92a35a7d4091d7f8d6337c23b16104105 |
| >16 | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0x1ee868fd07056d7072c8b6f1381939347c1205d755f2e1da9456aa13c80839b1 |
| 200 or more | 5¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026-200-or-more-polymarket-0xec9e92f27a98bc29028aec518993330e7920ac35f40fdea3c51e11d6ddc6acde |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 25 |
| 2026-05-25 | 29 |
| 2026-06-01 | 32 |
| 2026-06-08 | 42 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Above 140 −8pp 87→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 5-6 +8pp 18→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · <5 −6pp 61→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · <5 +6pp 55→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Above 170 −5pp 32→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects the chance that SpaceX completed exactly 13 launches during April 2026. The estimate sits between Kalshi's bullish 41% assessment and Polymarket's more conservative 19%, a 22-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about SpaceX's operational tempo or how to interpret April's historical launch patterns. The probability would increase if recent data showed SpaceX maintaining or accelerating its launch cadence; it would decrease if new information indicated mission delays, recovery issues, or reduced scheduling density. The key driver of uncertainty is SpaceX's actual April launch count, which becomes fully verifiable once official records close. Related markets on the same venues price "above 12" launches in 2026 at 44%, suggesting traders view exactly-13 as a discrete but plausible outcome rather than a central expectation. Resolution depends on confirmed SpaceX launch manifests and official statements about completed orbital flights in April.

### Key factors

- Kalshi contracts price above-12 launches at 44¢ and above-13 at only 4¢, indicating a steep probability cliff around 13 launches and suggesting traders view this threshold as near the margin of expectations
- Polymarket's 19% average is substantially lower than Kalshi's 41%, suggesting either different data interpretation, risk appetite, or liquidity concentration in lower-probability contracts on that venue
- SpaceX's historical April launch rates, launch vehicle availability (Falcon 9 manifest density), and any reported delays or recovery challenges directly determine whether 13 launches is above or below typical monthly volume
- The 22-percentage-point cross-venue gap indicates significant market uncertainty; resolution will test which venue's aggregate assessment better predicted SpaceX's actual April operational capacity
- Official SpaceX launch records and FAA/commercial space tracking data will provide definitive verification of April 2026 launch count, making this a binary, fully resolvable outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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