# How many SpaceX launches in May — 14 or more

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-spacex-launches-may
Updated: 2026-06-02T13:20:14.146Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 12 at 90%
- Runner-up: 11 at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $75

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 90¢ | +1pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-launches-in-may-12-polymarket-0x991909e37e6a096158fac5d56b812ad4108f42d306ee73d3c6afe31a99af337f |
| 11 | 9¢ | −2pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-launches-in-may-11-polymarket-0xf8fd77bd21e39c2316e501cd98b3c7e7ee0dbcadc1d1bc38abaa58e15541788d |
| 13 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-launches-in-may-13-polymarket-0x9b5cb09f31cfd62edf281ecb83326b7cedfd76ed71009242a8763f60b1072c15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 12 | 11 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 47 | 43 | 11 |
| 2026-05-25 | 62 | 27 | 16 |
| 2026-06-01 | 91 | 9 | 3 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market is pricing the probability that SpaceX will conduct 14 or more orbital launches during May 2026 at 3 cents, reflecting expectations of fewer launches in that month. The aggregated contracts show traders believe 12 launches is most likely (51%), with meaningful probability mass around 10-13 launches (42-43% range for each). The low price for 14+ reflects SpaceX's typical monthly cadence and the constraints of launch schedules, weather windows, and vehicle availability. May's outcome will depend on whether the company maintains or exceeds its recent operational pace and encounters no significant delays. The resolution occurs at the end of May 2026 when official launch counts become final.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's 2025 launch rate and current booster availability; recent months show actual monthly volume has averaged 9-11 launches
- Scheduled manifest publicly announced for May 2026 compared to actual slot availability and typical launch-to-launch turnaround times
- Weather and technical delays at Starbase and Cape Canaveral; single-month setbacks can shift outcomes by 2-3 launches
- Market clustering around 12 launches suggests traders view that as modal outcome, with 14+ requiring sustained acceleration above recent norms
- The 51% probability for 12 launches as market leader indicates high confidence in that specific bin relative to dispersed alternatives

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-spacex-launches-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=how-many-spacex-launches-may
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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