# How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026 — <5

> <5 leads at 60%, runner-up 19% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:20:08.379Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: <5 at 60%
- Runner-up: 5-6 at 19%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $456

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 60¢ | −1pp | $72 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0xacff734fd12b552ebab5edb2220cf23c19bda7728b3673a44b0c515a2c60c3d5 |
| 5-6 | 19¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0x1fc6ebc7c289f983c41bbbabcb8f89c40dd6e1775c3fef1d4db27345900918c2 |
| 7-8 | 6¢ | −1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0xbab5a91f04f1ebe8fb3842b90e0b59c04b59a17f4b7ee67aeb6ad30cdba3fdae |
| 15-16 | 5¢ | +3pp | $263 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0x4f14f6c2c59d7e37d47fb3d35c2b952b0f88f2a73bff7b520d8f6837eaa06950 |
| 13-14 | 5¢ | +1pp | $119 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0x77e5372080c917e45857e339ff82717efac40ad50cc0f2ea6ee30f5840fb3a0c |
| >16 | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0x1ee868fd07056d7072c8b6f1381939347c1205d755f2e1da9456aa13c80839b1 |
| 9-10 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2-polymarket-0xed0620605dbb5d1d7097883e9de344f92a35a7d4091d7f8d6337c23b16104105 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | <5 | 5-6 | 7-8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 66 | 25 | 6 |
| 2026-05-25 | 55 | 29 | 8 |
| 2026-06-01 | 55 | 18 | 6 |
| 2026-06-06 | 55 | 19 | 6 |
| 2026-06-08 | 60 | — | 5 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · 5-6 +8pp 18→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · <5 −6pp 61→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · <5 +6pp 55→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · >16 +4pp 4→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · 15-16 +3pp 2→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract asks whether SpaceX will complete fewer than 5 Starship launches reaching space during 2026, currently priced at 66% likelihood. The prediction reflects uncertainty around SpaceX's testing cadence and regulatory approval timelines for orbital flights. Factors pushing probability higher include historical delays in licensing and technical issues; factors pushing it lower include SpaceX's demonstrated progress on rapid reusability and stated goals for multiple 2026 missions. The key near-term catalyst is whether SpaceX receives FAA approval for the next orbital test flight and achieves the timeline outlined in public statements. By mid-2026, actual launch manifest data will substantially narrow uncertainty about whether the company can sustain the launch pace needed to exceed 4 missions.

### Key factors

- FAA licensing status for orbital test flights and environmental review completion timelines
- Historical SpaceX launch cadence for Starship versus stated 2026 targets of 5+ missions
- Vehicle readiness and manufacturing rates given turnaround times between flight tests
- Unplanned downtime from technical issues, pad damage, or regulatory holds that could compress launch windows
- Definition clarity: whether only orbital-velocity reaches count or suborbital test flights are included

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.