# How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026 — 375k–400k

> 475k+ leads at 38%, runner-up 25% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-tesla-deliveries-q2
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.489Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: 475k+ at 38%
- Runner-up: 375k–400k at 25%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475k+ | 38¢ | +2pp | $220 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-475k-polymarket-0x4926438a8bcd51e07989a94a7efafff86a0c66101a5f0f51dc0a252425c41b4b |
| 375k–400k | 25¢ | ±0 | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-375k400k-polymarket-0x13150beedcc4b60c60580eec5f87bbb3092995cd893aadb709425e097af82df4 |
| 400k–425k | 18¢ | −1pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-400k425k-polymarket-0xb98ca5f27a851fd490082e9d3f3058e9a8cf0266ec207854395693015acbd293 |
| 425k–450k | 14¢ | +3pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-425k450k-polymarket-0x3be2b05f91f41cea6c5bd803b4c456ca5339a38a8c2bb19f71d38ef44636b0da |
| 350k–375k | 13¢ | −1pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-350k375k-polymarket-0x178788be19cc27c495bb709cfbf582649e51b6bc11b3fa42ac221503f6b7e94b |
| <300k | 8¢ | +2pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-300k-polymarket-0x7a2b0abaf8be4d359db7845c8b3c0358460f62bcecbf97f1093e97cf81ec9b4a |
| 300k–325k | 5¢ | +6pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-300k325k-polymarket-0x03775189234c3abdb3c6e746c29f70d74ab924fba407f79173a88252a2c24b60 |
| 450k–475k | 4¢ | −2pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-450k475k-polymarket-0x2925e32df6f1cc297aa7f060aea103815ae0405926cd12ba9f244bfdface818c |
| 325k–350k | 3¢ | −2pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q2-2026-325k350k-polymarket-0x87f093341ab2438f8e1b7ea9e4a18e0aae873ebfb838cc55039e500b13109ad9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 475k+ | 375k–400k | 400k–425k |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 11 | 32 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 | 23 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 30 | 32 | 20 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · <300k −30pp 32→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · <300k +15pp 2→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 475k+ +7pp 18→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 350k–375k +7pp 5→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 450k–475k −7pp 25→18¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market estimate that Tesla will deliver between 375,000 and 400,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2026. At 27%, this outcome ranks among the leading scenarios but indicates meaningful uncertainty about Tesla's Q2 performance. The current level appears driven by baseline production capacity expectations balanced against potential macroeconomic headwinds and competition in key markets. Tesla typically reports quarterly delivery figures in early October, making Q2 results available by the first week of July 2026. The main factors pushing this probability higher would be strong early-quarter demand signals and maintained production rates, while demand weakness, supply chain disruptions, or competitive pressure could lower it. Market participants are pricing in a relatively wide distribution across multiple delivery bands, suggesting genuine uncertainty about where Tesla will land within its typical quarterly range.

### Key factors

- Tesla's Q1 2026 delivery total and production rate trends heading into Q2, as these establish the baseline capacity
- Macroeconomic indicators and EV demand signals through May-June 2026, particularly in the US and China markets
- Announced price adjustments, new model availability, or capacity expansions that become public before Q2 closes
- Competitive deliveries and market share dynamics from other manufacturers in Q2 2026
- The distribution of probabilities across all six outcome contracts, which shows how much uncertainty remains relative to this 375k-400k band

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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