# How many Tornadoes in the US in April — 140–169

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 96% across 1 contract — refreshed 12 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-tornadoes-us-april
Updated: 2026-05-08T19:05:12.068Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 290–319 | 96¢ | +19pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-april-290319-polymarket-0x824b5b5ba716e4674e3c8320374f44553838ebe1e2d684779127e3813bfb7729 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 45 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 290–319 +20pp 23→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · 290–319 +19pp 26→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 290–319 −13pp 39→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 290–319 −4pp 43→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 290–319 −3pp 26→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether April 2026 saw between 140 and 169 tornadoes in the United States. The current 57% probability suggests this outcome is viewed as slightly more likely than not, though substantial uncertainty remains across the six possible tornado count ranges. Tornado frequency varies significantly based on atmospheric conditions, seasonal patterns, and regional weather systems. The probability reflects both historical April tornado data and real-time weather patterns observed during the month. Markets typically reprice tornado contracts as April concludes and preliminary data becomes available from the Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena database maintained by NOAA. The key driver of price movement will be the official tornado count released after April ends, which consolidates reports from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources. Until final verification occurs, traders weigh historical April averages against any unusual weather activity that occurred during the month.

### Key factors

- Historical April tornado frequency typically ranges 100-180, with 1991-2020 average around 110-120 events
- April 2026 weather patterns and atmospheric setup, particularly severe weather outbreaks or unusually calm conditions compared to climatological norms
- NOAA Storm Data official count release and verification process, which determines which contract settles as winner
- Distribution of market pricing across all six outcome brackets indicates uncertainty about exact count rather than consensus on any single range
- Runner-up contract at 39% probability suggests alternative ranges (potentially 170-199 or 100-139 tornadoes) retain meaningful trader support

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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## License

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