# How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026 — 1250+

> 1250+ leads at 85%, runner-up 6% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-many-tornadoes-us
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.000Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-10

## Headline

- Leader: 1250+ at 85%
- Runner-up: 1200–1249 at 6%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1250+ | 85¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-2026-1250-polymarket-0x8573d651a82cbec45f07062b45f3d57a53767d25f71cee58bc3b8cceba591d4d |
| 1200–1249 | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-2026-12001249-polymarket-0xd1557000fc1cfb78db7a0e7a241ec88eddc33dc9261bbdd282a692b32a405a5d |
| 1150–1199 | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-2026-11501199-polymarket-0x36a1c5ecca3ee9bcf8ba8e043b522c1d7a7475101738c3c36156a46fdd81af0b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1250+ | 1200–1249 | 1150–1199 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 33 | 3 | 7 |
| 2026-04-24 | 64 | 11 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 65 | — | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 84 | 6 | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 85 | 5 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 85 | — | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This question asks whether the United States will experience 1,250 or more tornadoes during 2026. Currently, prediction markets estimate a 21% probability of this outcome. The forecast reflects uncertainty about severe weather patterns for the full year. Historical US tornado counts typically range from 800 to 1,500 annually, making 1,250 a moderately high threshold. The probability level suggests markets view 2026 as more likely to fall below this mark, though significant seasonal variation and atmospheric conditions could shift expectations. Key drivers include spring and early summer weather patterns—the primary tornado season—and overall atmospheric instability across the Great Plains and Midwest. The National Weather Service will report final 2026 tornado counts in early 2027, and seasonal data releases throughout the year will gradually clarify whether conditions are tracking toward this threshold.

### Key factors

- Average annual US tornado count is approximately 1,000-1,200, making 1,250 a moderately elevated target requiring above-median activity
- Spring 2026 severe weather patterns (April-June) will largely determine the outcome, as this period typically accounts for 60% of annual tornado activity
- El Niño or La Niña conditions and their evolution throughout 2026 materially influence atmospheric instability and severe weather frequency
- The 6 percentage-point gap between Polymarket (23%) and Kalshi (17%) suggests disagreement on weighting historical tornado frequency against 2026-specific atmospheric forecasts
- Monthly tornado reports from NOAA throughout 2026 will provide cumulative data to recalibrate probability as the year progresses toward resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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