# How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO — 90-100B

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/how-much-spacex-raise-its-ipo
Updated: 2026-06-13T19:21:11.942Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70-80B | 97¢ | +3pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/how-much-will-spacex-raise-in-its-ipo-70-80b-polymarket-0x40488748f5df0f3f8b797c967aef25d43d54a90488166d9ff9487a79ec5d8a94 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 26 |
| 2026-06-01 | 34 |
| 2026-06-08 | 91 |
| 2026-06-12 | 100 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · 70-80B +15pp 76→91¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-09 · 70-80B +4pp 91→95¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · 70-80B +3pp 97→100¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that SpaceX will raise between $90-100 billion in its initial public offering. The 33% aggregate reflects meaningful disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 60% while Polymarket traders estimate 27%, suggesting uncertainty about both SpaceX's valuation appetite and regulatory environment. The probability level hinges on two primary factors: SpaceX's operational performance in 2026, particularly launch cadence and profitability metrics that would support a high-end valuation, and broader capital markets conditions that determine investor appetite for high-valuation aerospace companies. The most consequential catalyst will be any official IPO announcement with terms and timing, which would shift this from speculative probability to concrete market price discovery. Until then, quarterly financial performance and launch success rates remain key indicators traders monitor.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's 2026 launch count relative to market expectations—traders are pricing Above 120 launches at 95¢ on Kalshi, suggesting confidence in execution baseline
- Aggregate market capitalization valuation required for a $90-100B IPO raise—implies total company valuation of roughly $200-250B depending on dilution assumptions
- Capital markets conditions in late 2026—broader equity market sentiment and demand for mega-cap IPOs will constrain or enable fundraising at the upper range
- Evidence of SpaceX profitability or path to profitability before IPO filing—venture and public markets weight margin trajectory heavily in aerospace valuations
- Regulatory approval timeline and any national security clearances required for an IPO of a company with defense contracts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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