# Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,100 in June 2026

> At least HK$24,100 leads at 86%, runner-up 17% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hsi
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.593Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least HK$24,100 at 86%
- Runner-up: At least HK$24,200 at 17%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least HK$24,100 | 86¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-hang-seng-index-be-at-least-hk24100-in-ju-kalshi-kxhsi-26jun30-24100 |
| At least HK$24,200 | 17¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-hang-seng-index-be-at-least-hk24200-in-ju-kalshi-kxhsi-26jun30-24200 |
| At least HK$24,300 | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-hang-seng-index-be-at-least-hk24300-in-ju-kalshi-kxhsi-26jun30-24300 |
| At least HK$24,500 | 4¢ | −2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-hang-seng-index-be-at-least-hk24500-in-ju-kalshi-kxhsi-26jun30-24500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least HK$24,100 | At least HK$24,200 | At least HK$24,300 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | 48 | 14 | 17 |
| 2026-06-19 | 81 | 63 | 46 |
| 2026-06-26 | 86 | 11 | 2 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · At least HK$24,200 +49pp 14→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · At least HK$24,200 −43pp 66→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · At least HK$24,300 −41pp 54→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · At least HK$24,100 −34pp 78→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · At least HK$24,100 +33pp 48→81¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets assess a 76% probability that Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index will close at or above HK$24,100 by the end of June 2026. This threshold represents a modest gain from recent levels, reflecting moderate optimism about Chinese equity valuations over the next six months. The probability distribution across contracts—with declining odds at higher price levels (63% at HK$24,200, 47% at HK$24,400)—suggests traders view significant upside as less likely than stabilization. Key drivers include mainland China's economic growth trajectory, policy stimulus measures, and global interest rate expectations. The precise resolution will depend on whether the Hang Seng closes above or below HK$24,100 on the final trading day of June 2026, making the index's response to Q2 corporate earnings and any government announcements critical to uncertainty around this level.

### Key factors

- Current Hang Seng level relative to HK$24,100 strike and distance to June 30, 2026 resolution date
- Mainland China's Q2 2026 GDP growth data and industrial production figures relative to consensus expectations
- People's Bank of China monetary policy stance and any announced stimulus or rate adjustments in April-June 2026
- Probability distribution across price tiers shows only modest conviction above HK$24,200, indicating relatively tight expected range
- Trading volume concentration in the HK$24,100-24,200 band versus sparse activity above HK$24,400 reflects where market disagrees most

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hsi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hsi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.