# HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch — $10M

> $100M leads at 47%, runner-up 44% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.723Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $100M at 47%
- Runner-up: $200M at 44%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xc60589484cf4d237c3dcf65c47ea0caa0ec9f1dfbfd31c0910e9ed74c649ee11 |
| $200M | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x5154705fb85680cc717d8bca6b3f945af875a56da6ff79169a613d6cfc4e1982 |
| $400M | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-400m-polymarket-0x578e35b2af7f28d4dd0d2eb9d50c874642dc5a4d268d8a528eb2c29e151925d5 |
| $10M | 38¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-10m-polymarket-0xaad51b9763a4f0cf780e284ce29e4abb7417abdc50f31457baf0f6b7a123ff6f |
| $20M | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-20m-polymarket-0x11f1fea413d7fa38fa046449b716921fd84baea806673c11106bc02b5fd86aae |
| $50M | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x7780567b279501c6757c7cdb4843e168dc5c3c6e98f270e0f6a1e2ab6a605aa4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $100M | $200M | $400M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 | 8 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 19 | 7 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 45 | 36 | 31 |
| 2026-05-08 | 40 | 41 | 32 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $50M −22pp 45→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $100M −8pp 45→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $400M −8pp 39→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $400M +8pp 28→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $200M +7pp 35→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether HUDL's fully diluted valuation will exceed $10 million one day after its token launch. A 43% probability suggests near even odds, reflecting significant uncertainty about initial market pricing. The valuation outcome depends primarily on launch timing, initial token distribution mechanics, and comparable valuations of similar projects at their debuts. Trading volume across related FDV contracts ($3,800-$6,000 daily) indicates modest but sustained interest in this category. Resolution occurs automatically one day post-launch through on-chain data verification. Key drivers include HUDL's pre-launch community size, token allocation structure, exchange listing decisions, and broader crypto market conditions at launch date. The disparity between bullish comparables ($50M+ thresholds trading near 94 cents) and bearish ones ($800M thresholds at 17 cents) shows market fragmentation on what constitutes a successful launch valuation.

### Key factors

- HUDL's token distribution mechanism: larger initial allocations and lower lock-up periods typically produce higher day-one FDVs
- Pre-launch community metrics: follower counts, Discord/Telegram engagement, and previous project signals as predictors of trading interest
- Exchange listing scope: inclusion on major centralized exchanges versus DEX-only launches materially affects price discovery and trading volume
- Comparable project benchmarks: similar token launches typically establish $10-50M FDV ranges within 24 hours depending on positioning
- Market conditions on launch date: broader crypto volatility, BTC/ETH price action, and competing token releases influence capital allocation to new projects

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hudl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.