# Will Elida become a Category 2 hurricane

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurcat
Updated: 2026-07-24T02:20:49.604Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-02

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category 2 or above | 3¢ | −25pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/will-fausto-become-a-category-2-hurricane-category-kalshi-kxhurcat-26fausto-t2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 80 |
| 2026-07-21 | 53 |
| 2026-07-22 | 34 |
| 2026-07-23 | 9 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · Category 2 or above −27pp 80→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Category 2 or above −25pp 34→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Category 2 or above −19pp 53→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 89% probability indicates traders believe Elida will reach at least Category 1 intensity, while the 39% for Category 2 or above suggests meaningful uncertainty about further intensification. The spread between these probabilities reflects disagreement over whether environmental conditions—particularly sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric moisture—will support the additional energy needed for Category 2 status. Key factors include current track forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, observed water temperatures along Elida's projected path, and wind shear patterns in the coming 48–72 hours. Resolution will depend on meteorological measurements as the storm develops, with intensity classifications determined by official NHC sustained wind speed assessments.

### Key factors

- Sea surface temperature along the forecast track: warmer waters (≥79°F) typically favor intensification to Category 2 or higher
- Upper-level wind shear magnitude: strong shear (>20 knots) inhibits further organization; weak shear enables it
- Current observed central pressure and wind speed: lower pressure and stronger observed winds at analysis time reduce intensification distance needed
- NHC official forecast track: landfall timing and coastal proximity affect available warm-water interaction time
- Atmospheric moisture and convective structure: organization of deep convection around the core signals intensification potential

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurcat
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hurcat

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.