# Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026

> Above 1 leads at 75%, runner-up 63% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurctotmaj
Updated: 2026-06-29T04:20:50.893Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-02

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1 at 75%
- Runner-up: Above 0 at 63%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $260

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-1-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t1 |
| Above 0 | 63¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-0-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t0 |
| Above 2 | 50¢ | +4pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-2-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t2 |
| Above 3 | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-3-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t3 |
| Above 4 | 11¢ | −1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-4-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t4 |
| Above 5 | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-5-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t5 |
| Above 6 | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-6-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t6 |
| Above 0 | 3¢ | +1pp | $229 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-0-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26jun30-t0 |
| Above 7 | 3¢ | −2pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-7-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26dec01-t7 |
| Above 5 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-5-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26jun30-t5 |
| Above 6 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-6-major-atlantic-hurricane-kalshi-kxhurctotmaj-26jun30-t6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1 | Above 0 | Above 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 67 | — | 62 |
| 2026-05-31 | 68 | 87 | 62 |
| 2026-06-15 | — | — | 70 |
| 2026-06-17 | 81 | 92 | 68 |
| 2026-06-22 | 70 | 72 | 67 |
| 2026-06-28 | 75 | 65 | 51 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Above 2 −16pp 63→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 0 −9pp 79→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 0 +7pp 72→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-28 · Above 0 −7pp 72→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 3 +5pp 31→36¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that 2026 will produce at least three Atlantic hurricanes reaching major (Category 3+) intensity. The 85% confidence level sits well above historical averages, driven by Atlantic sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions entering the season. The related contracts show meaningful uncertainty at the extremes: only 42% probability for four-plus major hurricanes and 16% for six-plus, suggesting consensus around a moderately active season rather than an exceptional one. The Atlantic hurricane season runs June through November, with peak activity typically in August-September. The National Hurricane Center's official seasonal forecast, released in early June, will provide the first major update to current market pricing and incorporate the latest climate model data.

### Key factors

- Atlantic sea surface temperatures relative to climatological baseline during boreal summer 2026
- Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength and warm-water anomalies in development zones
- El Niño / La Niña / neutral ENSO conditions, which suppress or enhance Atlantic hurricane formation
- Saharan dust patterns and African tropical wave genesis frequency during peak season months
- Actual storm track and intensity data from June-November 2026 will steadily resolve uncertainty toward season end

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurctotmaj
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hurctotmaj

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.