# Will a Category 5 hurricane hit the US?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 9 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurricane-category5
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.367Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 4, 2026 | 28¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-de-kalshi-kxelectionemergency-26nov04 |
| Before 2026 | 13¢ | −4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-the-united-kalshi-kxscotusmarijuanagun |
| Before 2027 | 7¢ | +1pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-recognize-reza-pahlavi-as-t-kalshi-kxrecogpersoniran-26 |
| Iowa | 11¢ | −1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-ia |
| Will the United States Mint or the Department of the Treasury announce the official selection of a final design for a $1 coin featuring Donald Trump in 2026? | 52¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-mint-or-the-department-of-t-kalshi-kxtrumpdollar-26 |
| Alaska | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ak |
| Ohio | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-oh |
| James Talarico | 80¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-james-talarico-in-the-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-jtal |
| Dan Osborn | 43¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-dan-osborn-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-dosb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 39 |
| 2026-05-25 | 33 |
| 2026-06-01 | 29 |
| 2026-06-08 | 13 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Before Nov 4, 2026 +4pp 18→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Before Nov 4, 2026 +4pp 22→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Before 2026 −4pp 17→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Before Nov 4, 2026 −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurricane-category5
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hurricane-category5

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.