# Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026

> Above 5 leads at 91%, runner-up 84% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurricane
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:07.083Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 5 at 91%
- Runner-up: Above 6 at 84%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5 | 91¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-5-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-5 |
| Above 6 | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-6-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-6 |
| Above 7 | 76¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-7-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-7 |
| Above 3 | 73¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-3-hurricanes-of-category-3-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epacmaj-3 |
| Above 8 | 65¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-8-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-8 |
| Above 1 | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-1-hurricane-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01cpactot-1 |
| Above 9 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-9-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-9 |
| Above 4 | 54¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-4-hurricanes-of-category-3-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epacmaj-4 |
| Above 10 | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-10-hurricanes-of-category-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-10 |
| Above 5 | 37¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-5-hurricanes-of-category-3-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epacmaj-5 |
| Above 11 | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-11-hurricanes-of-category-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-11 |
| Above 6 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-6-hurricanes-of-category-3-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epacmaj-6 |
| Above 2 | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-2-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01cpactot-2 |
| Above 12 | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-12-hurricanes-of-category-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-12 |
| Above 7 | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-7-hurricanes-of-category-3-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epacmaj-7 |
| Above 4 | 16¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-4-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01cpactot-4 |
| Above 3 | 15¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-3-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01cpactot-3 |
| Above 13 | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-13-hurricanes-of-category-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epactot-13 |
| Above 8 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-8-hurricanes-of-category-3-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01epacmaj-8 |
| Above 5 | 3¢ | −15pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-5-hurricanes-of-category-1-kalshi-kxhurricane-26dec01cpactot-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 5 | Above 6 | Above 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 82 | 74 | 66 |
| 2026-05-25 | 91 | — | 76 |
| 2026-05-28 | 91 | 85 | 76 |
| 2026-05-31 | 91 | 84 | 76 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 84 | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Above 2 −48pp 74→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above 3 +35pp 17→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above 2 +27pp 27→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 2 +20pp 54→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above 5 +18pp 4→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether the Central Pacific basin will experience at least two hurricanes of category 1 strength or higher during 2026. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence this threshold will be met. The assessment is driven primarily by historical baseline rates—the Central Pacific typically sees 3-4 hurricanes annually—and current sea surface temperature patterns. The main variable is whether atmospheric conditions (vertical wind shear, atmospheric instability) remain favorable for storm development through the peak August-October season. The key driver of uncertainty centers on whether sea surface temperatures in the Pacific warm or cool relative to current forecasts, which directly affects hurricane genesis frequency. Resolution depends on observations from the National Hurricane Center's official records through December 31, 2026, with most storms typically occurring between July and November when conditions are most conducive to development.

### Key factors

- Central Pacific historical average of 3-4 hurricanes annually from 1950-2024 baseline data
- Current sea surface temperature anomalies and their projected evolution through peak hurricane season (August-October)
- Vertical wind shear patterns forecasted for mid-Pacific during 2026 warm season
- ENSO phase and tropical Pacific circulation patterns as of May 2026
- Official National Hurricane Center categorization criteria applied to any tracked systems

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurricane
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hurricane

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.