# Will Norbert be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 16 contracts — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurricanenames
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.253Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $29

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 25¢ | −26pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-amanda-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-e-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01epac-ama |
| Arthur | 20¢ | +8pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-a-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-art |
| Cristina | 30¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristina-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01epac-cri |
| Boris | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boris-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-ea-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01epac-bor |
| Nolo | 20¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nolo-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-cen-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01cpac-nol |
| Olana | 20¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-olana-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-ce-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01cpac-ola |
| Pena | 20¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pena-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-cen-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01cpac-pen |
| Ulana | 20¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ulana-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-ce-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01cpac-ula |
| Wale | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wale-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-cen-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01cpac-wal |
| Bertha | 60¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bertha-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-a-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-ber |
| Cristobal | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristobal-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-th-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-cri |
| Dolly | 41¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dolly-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-at-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-dol |
| Edouard | 43¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-edouard-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-edo |
| Josephine | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josephine-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-th-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-jos |
| Kyle | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-atl-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-kyl |
| Leah | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-leah-be-categorized-as-a-hurricane-in-the-atl-kalshi-kxhurricanenames-26dec01atl-lea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 18 |
| 2026-05-24 | 31 |
| 2026-06-01 | 23 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Bertha +19pp 41→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Cristina −14pp 30→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Arthur +8pp 6→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Dolly −3pp 47→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses whether tropical cyclone Norbert will reach hurricane strength while located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The 20% probability reflects base rates for named storms in this region and typical seasonal patterns. Hurricane development depends primarily on ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions that support intensification. The market will resolve based on official National Hurricane Center classifications, which provide real-time updates throughout the season. Norbert's current trajectory and any emerging weather patterns over the next 1-2 months will be the main factors determining whether conditions favor rapid intensification to hurricane-force winds (sustained speeds of 74+ mph). Historical data on similar storm tracks and seasonal water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific will anchor trader expectations until Norbert's actual formation and movement become apparent.

### Key factors

- Eastern Pacific ocean surface temperatures in summer 2026 relative to 30-year averages, which directly influence storm intensification potential
- Atmospheric instability indices (wind shear, humidity, pressure patterns) forecasted for Norbert's predicted track
- Historical frequency of named storms reaching hurricane status in the Eastern Pacific during June-November periods
- National Hurricane Center official classifications and sustained wind speed measurements once Norbert forms and develops
- Seasonal forecast confidence levels from NOAA and other meteorological agencies for 2026 Atlantic basin activity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurricanenames
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hurricanenames

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.