# Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch — $20M

> $5M leads at 40%, runner-up 22% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.551Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $5M at 40%
- Runner-up: $10M at 22%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $340

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5M | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-5m-polymarket-0x0d3af41be9ec70b52a10880b446d6a838004c9db0165fa77da76acb27d129fe2 |
| $10M | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-10m-polymarket-0x599d61b32cf69370b99bfb79de4f13d50ed2ba8f4b958238aa329a05763ae183 |
| $20M | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-20m-polymarket-0x1f35e5ffd373fbb2893e50170f8aa29532632a276bdec0bcc6d11c9468dc9d36 |
| $40M | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-40m-polymarket-0x0800eeedda0095fceb054629b0afcba25d092c090298d12395f296e1dade207c |
| $100M | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x78890e331a287f7594bbca7dba09081126cba0288cfdeef2f0e6d999a6872cfe |
| $50M | 9¢ | −6pp | $170 | polymarket | /markets/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x7699a9c555f3bdf1b3ab309932448d4fec015396d84bc57d7a95541f6e33ff08 |
| $30M | 7¢ | ±0 | $170 | polymarket | /markets/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-30m-polymarket-0x2740679cb91032bdf1975e9496720a9cb81b67d8ddf566a9fdeace9d44fb69c0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $5M | $10M | $20M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 20 | 24 | — |
| 2026-04-14 | — | 24 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 33 | 22 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 | 36 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | 38 | 21 | 21 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $10M −18pp 39→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M −12pp 24→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $100M −9pp 33→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $5M −7pp 43→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $20M −7pp 28→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Hurupay will have a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $20 million one day after its token launch. At 35% probability, the market estimates this outcome as unlikely but plausible. The probability reflects uncertainty about Hurupay's initial market reception, token allocation structure, and comparable valuations for similar projects at launch. Factors that could raise this probability include strong pre-launch demand signals, strategic partnerships, or a large seed round that establishes baseline valuation. Conversely, weak pre-launch interest or market-wide crypto conditions would pressure it lower. The resolution depends on observable FDV data immediately following launch—a specific date that will definitively settle the contract based on circulating supply, token price, and total diluted supply figures.

### Key factors

- Initial token price at launch versus pre-launch valuation expectations and seed round terms
- Circulating supply percentage and full dilution schedule relative to total token allocation
- Pre-launch trading volume and interest levels on derivative or prediction markets
- Market conditions for similar token launches in the 30 days preceding Hurupay's launch
- Comparison of $20M FDV threshold to historical launch valuations for comparable blockchain projects

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.