# HYPE price up in next 15 mins

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 18 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hype15m
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:21:01.764Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 28% / Polymarket 32% — 4pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 20 | 28¢ | −3pp | $720 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-20-polymarket-0xa4cab194f7487ecbe058aa8278a45a51487afe828af6c3c2eed5b096639c23e9 |
| ↑ 62 | 36¢ | +2pp | $663 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-62-polymarket-0xc53e5d334fd60c52660ae22981a5e8e2c63f0fb1c9d5a94b6b766fee1a4aef22 |
| ↓ 16 | 13¢ | −8pp | $532 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-16-polymarket-0x8555a03570e1eb69c94ab5d41796058d8fcb9e909a6464e6cec9ff85d199b7bf |
| Price to Beat: 2.28 | 61¢ | +13pp | $521 | kalshi | /markets/h100-sxm-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-228-kalshi-kxh100w-26may08-2.28 |
| ↑ 100 | 16¢ | −2pp | $307 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-100-polymarket-0xeae133a71045c94ab57717d3f4aab62758e2a915a27f9606e383024975264467 |
| ↑ 54 | 60¢ | +17pp | $165 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-54-polymarket-0x08aa311914849c68c99adef467d1bed03ba7d68eab997c7d53e0c2661903301b |
| ↓ 8 | 6¢ | −14pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-8-polymarket-0x587313a1b7d4eae36578004e3333e3d8bc9159177ecd255ff61b947a4e636b02 |
| ↑ 66 | 20¢ | −13pp | $80 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-66-polymarket-0xda041e02c4a9a6d935a85c0c81663a20561859e4de0d3f53a29864b4eb577e27 |
| ↑ 70 | 28¢ | −2pp | $65 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-70-polymarket-0xcd9228e46e7ace46a2e18396932cb2f6336725d8d83877b51f95e1be9c5bdf8e |
| ↑ 50 | 73¢ | ±0 | $13 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-50-polymarket-0xfd2bdf9324af684d6d596c79606f876ef526a9226575ec3b9dcc73712637e00e |
| ↑ 58 | 74¢ | +10pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-58-polymarket-0x8f1a3245ec9e5edb18d4440206d275daa6ce4170abf041272268b2e090520660 |
| ↑ 80 | 22¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-80-polymarket-0xc2b3271feb6086186483f74883b31cf018996505827f4a23a1cc86ef03c5d9c4 |
| Price to Beat: 0.48 | 11¢ | +5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/rtx-5090-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-048-kalshi-kxrtx5090w-26may08-0.48 |
| ↓ 12 | 8¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-12-polymarket-0x8f9956410b9b8ef4c112ea03800920bc445deff855d57fb156c9ab9b56aecc8a |
| Hypersail | 63¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-ferrari-nv-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionrace-26may05-hype |
| Price to Beat: 1.14 | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/a100-sxm4-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-114-kalshi-kxa100w-26may08-1.14 |
| Price to Beat: 5.03 | 11¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/b200-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-503-kalshi-kxb200w-26may08-5.03 |
| Price to Beat: 4.09 | 16¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/h200-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-409-kalshi-kxh200w-26may08-4.09 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 35 |
| 2026-04-19 | 43 |
| 2026-04-26 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Price to Beat: 2.28 +38pp 2→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Hypersail +20pp 46→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · ↓ 16 +19pp 19→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · ↓ 12 −19pp 27→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↓ 12 +18pp 9→27¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hype15m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hype15m

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.