# Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $52.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

> Above $45.00 leads at 79%, runner-up 46% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hypemaxmon-hype
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.885Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $45.00 at 79%
- Runner-up: Above $47.50 at 46%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $501

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $45.00 | 79¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-above-4500-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypemaxmon-hype-26may31-4500 |
| Above $47.50 | 46¢ | +11pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-above-4750-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypemaxmon-hype-26may31-4750 |
| Above $50.00 | 30¢ | +8pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-above-5000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypemaxmon-hype-26may31-5000 |
| Above $52.50 | 17¢ | +6pp | $384 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-above-5250-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypemaxmon-hype-26may31-5250 |
| Above $55.00 | 11¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-above-5500-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypemaxmon-hype-26may31-5500 |
| Above $57.50 | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-above-5750-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypemaxmon-hype-26may31-5750 |
| Above $60.00 | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-above-6000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypemaxmon-hype-26may31-6000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $45.00 | Above $47.50 | Above $50.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 49 | 50 | 34 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 51 | 31 |
| 2026-05-06 | 71 | 49 | 31 |
| 2026-05-07 | 68 | 43 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 54 | 34 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | 77 | 45 | 28 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Above $45.00 +23pp 54→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above $45.00 +22pp 49→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Above $45.00 −14pp 68→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Above $47.50 +11pp 34→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above $52.50 −9pp 22→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether HYPE (a cryptocurrency or token) will trade at or above $52.50 by April 30, 2026. The current 26% probability suggests markets view this price level as unlikely but not implausible. With the resolution date approximately four weeks away, the main drivers are HYPE's current price relative to the target, recent volatility patterns, and correlation with broader crypto market movement. Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts in the Kalshi ecosystem show mixed sentiment—ETH bullish at 55%, BTC bearish at 21% for higher levels—indicating uncertainty across digital assets. The outcome depends on whether HYPE experiences sustained upside momentum or consolidates below the threshold. Market makers are pricing roughly 3-to-1 odds against reaching this target, reflecting either current price positioning well below $52.50 or expectations of limited upside catalysts in the four-week window.

### Key factors

- HYPE's current trading price relative to $52.50 and the percentage gain required to reach it
- Implied volatility and historical price range for HYPE over similar four-week periods
- Correlation of HYPE price movement with Bitcoin and Ethereum, given broader crypto market conditions
- Volume and liquidity on primary exchanges where HYPE trades, affecting price discovery and sustainability
- Any scheduled token unlocks, exchange listings, or protocol events between now and April 30, 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hypemaxmon-hype
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hypemaxmon-hype

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.