# Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $22.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

> Below $40.00 leads at 63%, runner-up 40% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hypeminmon-hype
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.566Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Below $40.00 at 63%
- Runner-up: Below $37.50 at 40%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.00 | 63¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-below-4000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypeminmon-hype-26may31-4000 |
| Below $37.50 | 40¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-below-3750-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypeminmon-hype-26may31-3750 |
| Below $35.00 | 23¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-below-3500-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypeminmon-hype-26may31-3500 |
| Below $32.50 | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-below-3250-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypeminmon-hype-26may31-3250 |
| Below $27.50 | 4¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-below-2750-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypeminmon-hype-26may31-2750 |
| Below $25.00 | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-below-2500-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypeminmon-hype-26may31-2500 |
| Below $22.50 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hype-trimmed-mean-be-below-2250-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxhypeminmon-hype-26may31-2250 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $40.00 | Below $37.50 | Below $35.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 53 | 59 | 52 |
| 2026-05-02 | 85 | — | 47 |
| 2026-05-06 | 67 | 44 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 74 | 52 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | 59 | 35 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | 66 | 44 | 24 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Below $40.00 +32pp 53→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Below $35.00 −27pp 50→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Below $32.50 −24pp 32→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Below $40.00 −21pp 88→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Below $37.50 −17pp 52→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market tracks whether HYPE's price will drop below $22.50 by April 30, 2026—a timeframe that is now in the past as of May 3, 2026. The 29% probability reflects traders' assessment of downside risk for this asset during that period. Price momentum, volatility, and overall market conditions typically drive such predictions. The current odds suggest traders viewed a sub-$22.50 close as unlikely but plausible. Since the resolution date has already passed, this contract should have settled based on the actual trimmed mean price recorded at that time. The main factors affecting such probability estimates include trading volume concentration, historical price range, and broader market sentiment toward digital assets during the specified window.

### Key factors

- HYPE's historical trading range and volatility relative to the $22.50 threshold
- Overall crypto market conditions and Bitcoin correlation patterns during the April 2026 window
- Liquidity and order book depth at price levels near $22.50
- Trading volume and price discovery mechanisms on exchanges reporting to the trimmed mean calculation
- Any announced updates, partnerships, or regulatory developments affecting HYPE specifically during March-April 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hypeminmon-hype
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hypeminmon-hype

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.