# Hyperbeat FDV above ___ one day after launch — $100M

> $50M leads at 32%, runner-up 6% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hyperbeat-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:27.442Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $50M at 32%
- Runner-up: $100M at 6%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hyperbeat-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xf15ebf3fdafd97bc3f2da31a9f6920ec2c2d3a1833289fb4407e63c203f36346 |
| $100M | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hyperbeat-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x54716c4acb414ff55a6e9c8e8231cf787ca2143c5fc4731d72851866d6abc302 |
| $200M | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hyperbeat-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x1a854b44aa73083bcd2c84823dd113a845c4072c6f19f3de32a43e866783cd3f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $50M | $100M | $200M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 23 | 9 | 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | 24 | 11 | 3 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 | 12 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 | 4 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 32 | 7 | 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | 32 | — | 4 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $200M −3pp 7→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $100M +3pp 4→7¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 31% probability that Hyperbeat's fully diluted valuation will exceed $100 million on its first day of trading. The relatively low probability reflects skepticism about achieving this valuation threshold immediately at launch. Key drivers of this estimate include comparable token launch valuations in the market and historical precedent for new projects entering trading—projects rarely command nine-figure FDVs on day one unless backed by exceptional market conditions or extraordinary demand. The primary uncertainty will resolve on Hyperbeat's launch date, when trading commences and market price discovery establishes the actual FDV. Until then, this probability tracks sentiment about the project's perceived quality and market appetite for its token relative to other launches.

### Key factors

- Comparable launches: Other similar projects in the prediction market sample (Predict.fun at 94¢, Billions at 89¢) suggest very different probability distributions for lower valuation thresholds, indicating market fragmentation on launch valuations
- Liquidity and volume context: Current 24-hour volumes on related contracts ($3,800-$6,000) are moderate, suggesting the market reflects genuine uncertainty rather than settled consensus
- Valuation threshold sensitivity: The $100M FDV threshold is relatively high for day-one trading; related contracts show much higher prices for lower thresholds ($50M at 94¢), establishing the magnitude of uncertainty at this level
- Polymarket consolidation: Data aggregates only three contracts with an average of 14%, creating a gap between leader (31%) and mean, indicating potential disagreement or low total liquidity across the set
- No scheduled catalyst identified: Resolution depends entirely on Hyperbeat's launch timing and initial market price discovery, with no announced date or precedent data yet available

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hyperbeat-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hyperbeat-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.