# Hyperliquid airdrop by ....

> December 31, 2027 leads at 59%, runner-up 27% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hyperliquid-airdrop
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.400Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2027 at 59%
- Runner-up: December 31, 2026 at 27%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hyperliquid-airdrop-by-december-31-2027-polymarket-0x12ed4858fd4aa92e1a644c74273ca76f49735c114d6833f8a3edef4f19e5ebff |
| December 31, 2026 | 27¢ | ±0 | $26 | polymarket | /markets/hyperliquid-airdrop-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0xfa88bedd0403281fac1b3c8b310755040aabed8ba12ded1b2e3205a3d05a4a28 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 35 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 22 |
| 2026-04-27 | 46 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 74 | 28 |
| 2026-05-07 | 58 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 23 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · December 31, 2027 −14pp 73→59¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · December 31, 2027 +5pp 69→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · December 31, 2026 −4pp 27→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' collective view that Hyperliquid will conduct a token airdrop by December 31, 2027, with 74% confidence assigned to that year versus 28% for completion by end of 2026. The current leader pricing indicates meaningful uncertainty about timing, likely driven by Hyperliquid's development roadmap and precedent from comparable DeFi platforms. Resolution hinges on whether the project announces and executes an airdrop before the 2027 deadline. The stark difference between contract prices (70¢ vs. 28¢) suggests traders believe 2027 is substantially more probable than 2026, possibly reflecting typical project development cycles. Volume concentration in the 2026 contract ($3,437 in 24h) versus minimal activity in the 2027 contract suggests recent trading focused on near-term expectations, though the 2027 outcome currently commands higher implied probability.

### Key factors

- Hyperliquid's publicly stated tokenomics roadmap and any official airdrop timeline announcements
- Historical precedent from comparable derivatives/DeFi protocols regarding airdrop frequency and timing
- Project funding stage and need for decentralization-driven token distribution relative to development milestones
- Trading volume imbalance between 2026 and 2027 contracts indicates market uncertainty about the near-term deadline
- No reported scheduled announcement date visible in 24h contract activity, suggesting base case assumes multi-year development timeline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hyperliquid-airdrop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hyperliquid-airdrop

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.