# Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by ___

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 2 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hyperliquids-hip4-upgrade-go-live-mainnet
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:52.536Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Hathaway | 3¢ | ±0 | $11K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-host-saturday-night-live-season-51-anne-h-kalshi-kxsnlhost-26-ann |
| Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby | 34¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-151st-kentucky-derby-win-the-47th-annual-spor-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssnce-151 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 10 |
| 2026-04-19 | 2 |
| 2026-04-26 | 2 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby +14pp 10→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby +6pp 24→30¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hyperliquids-hip4-upgrade-go-live-mainnet
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hyperliquids-hip4-upgrade-go-live-mainnet

## License

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