# IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner

> Christina Bohannan leads at 94%, runner-up 4% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ia01-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.210Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Christina Bohannan at 94%
- Runner-up: Travis Terrell at 4%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $195

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Bohannan | 94¢ | +1pp | $195 | polymarket | /markets/ia-01-democratic-primary-winner-christina-bohannan-polymarket-0x0db20c32f6c868924c7a9386bfd61f62cecfbba38b6fd114f02eb2a8f5727505 |
| Travis Terrell | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ia-01-democratic-primary-winner-travis-terrell-polymarket-0x26cf8f1e32064639d1cfeb840f0904803be9125d3e3496d9aa4ae75d97dc562f |
| Taylor Wettach | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ia-01-democratic-primary-winner-taylor-wettach-polymarket-0x1d86be452f1b396bc783c7df2b553d3084ff715e5b8d10f801a8910fa237d4a8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Christina Bohannan | Travis Terrell | Taylor Wettach |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 1 |
| 2026-04-10 | 97 | 3 | 2 |
| 2026-04-24 | 94 | — | 2 |
| 2026-04-28 | 66 | 22 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 91 | 8 | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 93 | 6 | 3 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 5 | 3 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 37% probability represents the chance that a Democratic candidate wins Iowa's 1st Congressional District primary election. The current level reflects typical competitive dynamics in open-seat or contested Democratic primaries, where multiple candidates typically divide the electorate. The probability could shift based on fundraising reports, endorsements from established party figures, and turnout modeling in key precincts. The primary election date will provide the definitive resolution of this market. Democratic primary participation and candidate field consolidation closer to Election Day are the most significant factors that would move this estimate substantially higher or lower.

### Key factors

- Candidate field size and whether consolidation occurs before the primary vote
- Early fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reports filed with the Federal Election Commission
- Endorsements from sitting members of Congress or statewide Democratic officials
- Voter registration and turnout patterns in the district, particularly in core Democratic areas
- Whether the Democratic nominee faces a strong Republican general election candidate, which may influence primary voter perceptions of viability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ia01-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ia01-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.