# IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

> Lindsay James leads at 93%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ia02-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.327Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Lindsay James at 93%
- Runner-up: Kathy Dolter at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsay James | 93¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ia-02-democratic-primary-winner-lindsay-james-polymarket-0x61dec1e8cfadf7b822c9820ba9d4111fc04afb3696ade1ad219869d09aee3674 |
| Kathy Dolter | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ia-02-democratic-primary-winner-kathy-dolter-polymarket-0x50ae9b2cf75d2665bb46ee5f5ac38ea7715abab5f038d8ab9d9f2da046a9af37 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Lindsay James | Kathy Dolter |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 36 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 91 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 93 | 3 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 3 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Kathy Dolter +3pp 3→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kathy Dolter −3pp 6→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Lindsay James +3pp 90→93¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 45% probability reflects the estimated likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Iowa 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. The current price suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with no clear frontrunner establishing dominant support. Primary election outcomes depend on voter turnout, candidate name recognition in the district, endorsements from local and state party figures, and campaign spending relative to competitors. The primary election date will resolve this contract—once ballots are cast and votes counted, the outcome becomes certain. Analysts tracking this race would monitor candidate fundraising reports, polling data if available, and endorsement announcements from influential local Democrats to assess whether the favorite maintains support or if challengers gain ground heading into election day.

### Key factors

- Iowa 2nd District voter composition and historical Democratic performance in general elections versus primaries
- Campaign funding levels and advertising spending by competing candidates in the district
- Endorsements from state party leadership, current officeholders, and local organizations representing key voter blocs
- Turnout expectations for the primary election and whether first-time or occasional primary voters participate
- Any recent polling data showing candidate name recognition and preference shifts among likely Democratic primary voters

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ia02-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ia02-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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