# Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons

> Above 4.3 billion gallons leads at 95%, runner-up 91% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 21 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iaethanol
Updated: 2026-08-26T16:21:44.792Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.3 billion gallons at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 4.4 billion gallons at 91%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.3 billion gallons | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-43-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t4.3 |
| Above 4.4 billion gallons | 91¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-44-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t4.4 |
| Above 4.5 billion gallons | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-45-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t4.5 |
| Above 4.6 billion gallons | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-46-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t4.6 |
| Above 4.7 billion gallons | 21¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-47-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t4.7 |
| Above 4.8 billion gallons | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-48-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t4.8 |
| Above 4.9 billion gallons | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-49-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t4.9 |
| Above 5.0 billion gallons | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-ethanol-production-for-2026-be-above-50-kalshi-kxiaethanol-27jan31-t5.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.3 billion gallons | Above 4.4 billion gallons | Above 4.5 billion gallons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | 76 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | 77 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | 78 |
| 2026-08-21 | 92 | 89 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 93 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 94 | 93 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | 89 | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — | 91 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-23 · Above 4.4 billion gallons +4pp 89→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 4.4 billion gallons −4pp 93→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 4.7 billion gallons +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 4.8 billion gallons +4pp 6→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 76% probability that Iowa will produce above 4.5 billion gallons of ethanol in 2026, with substantially lower odds (16%) for production exceeding 4.7 billion gallons. This reflects expected output given current corn supplies, refinery demand, and historical production trends. The wide spread across contract prices—from 76¢ down to 6¢ as thresholds increase—indicates uncertainty about whether production will reach mid-to-high range levels. Resolution depends on final 2026 production data, typically released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in early 2027. Key drivers include corn crop yields this harvest season, domestic fuel blending mandates, export demand for ethanol, and refinery operating rates. A significant shortfall in the corn harvest or reduced renewable fuel mandates would pressure production downward, while strong demand and favorable growing conditions could push it toward higher thresholds.

### Key factors

- 2026 corn crop yield and total harvest volume directly determines feedstock availability for ethanol production
- Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates set annual ethanol blending targets that influence refinery demand
- Historical Iowa ethanol production has ranged 3.8-4.2 billion gallons annually; levels above 4.7 billion would represent a multi-year high
- Export demand for U.S. ethanol and international trade policy affect utilization rates beyond domestic blending requirements
- Crude oil prices and gasoline spreads influence ethanol's competitiveness relative to other fuels in the refinery mix

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iaethanol
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iaethanol

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.