# Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election

> Ashley Hinson leads at 58%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iasenate
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.691Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Ashley Hinson at 58%
- Runner-up: Josh Turek at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | 58¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-iowa-senate-election-ashley-kalshi-kxiasenate-26-ahin |
| Josh Turek | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-iowa-senate-election-josh-tu-kalshi-kxiasenate-26-jtur |
| Zach Wahls | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-iowa-senate-election-zach-wa-kalshi-kxiasenate-26-zwah |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Josh Turek | Zach Wahls |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 27 | 13 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 14 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 58% probability reflects market expectations that Republican Ashley Hinson will win Iowa's 2026 Senate seat. This represents a substantial but not overwhelming advantage over Democrat Zach Wahls at 14% and independent Josh Turek at 26%. The current pricing reflects Hinson's incumbent status and recent electoral performance in Iowa, though the substantial runner-up probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about voter preferences heading into the general election. Key factors affecting this outcome include national political environment shifts, candidate fundraising and campaign performance, and demographic voting patterns in Iowa. The general election on November 3, 2026, will ultimately resolve the race, though primary outcomes and debate performances may significantly move probabilities in the months beforehand.

### Key factors

- Ashley Hinson's 2022 Senate race performance and current approval ratings in Iowa
- National midterm political dynamics and their specific impact on Midwest swing-state sentiment
- Turnout and coalition composition in Iowa given demographic shifts since 2022
- Candidate campaign infrastructure quality and fundraising disparities between Hinson, Wahls, and Turek
- Iowa-specific economic conditions and voter priorities between primary elections and November 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iasenate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iasenate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.