# Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 92%, runner-up 90% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iceero
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:07.879Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 92%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 1, 2026 at 90%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-funds-ices-enforcement-and-r-kalshi-kxiceero-26mar-jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 90¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-funds-ices-enforcement-and-r-kalshi-kxiceero-26mar-jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Jul 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 93 | 92 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 77 |
| 2026-05-26 | 89 | 74 |
| 2026-06-01 | 88 | 78 |
| 2026-06-08 | 92 | 89 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Before Jul 1, 2026 +9pp 69→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Before Jul 1, 2026 +9pp 82→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Before Jul 1, 2026 −6pp 90→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Before Jul 1, 2026 +5pp 84→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +3pp 88→91¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction reflects a 95% probability that Congress will pass legislation funding ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations before January 1, 2027. ICE's ERO typically receives appropriations through broader Homeland Security funding bills or continuing resolutions that pass routinely each fiscal year. The high probability reflects the historical pattern of bipartisan support for ICE funding through appropriations processes, regardless of political disagreements over immigration policy. Key uncertainty factors include whether funding delays occur due to broader budget negotiations, whether a government shutdown happens before year-end, or whether legislative disputes over immigration enforcement prioritize alternative funding mechanisms. The main resolution catalyst is the appropriations cycle deadlines, particularly any September 2026 fiscal year-end negotiations when Congress must renew funding or pass continuing resolutions.

### Key factors

- ICE ERO funding has passed with bipartisan support in appropriations bills for decades, suggesting structural likelihood of passage
- The current fiscal year timeline creates pressure for appropriations passage by September 30, 2026, well before the January 1, 2027 deadline
- Any government shutdown or continuing resolution impasse could delay passage but would not necessarily prevent eventual funding before year-end
- The 54¢ price on a June 1, 2026 resolution deadline suggests market expects passage before mid-year, indicating near-term legislative action
- Historical pattern shows ERO funding rarely becomes a primary legislative dispute point compared to broader immigration policy debates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iceero
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iceero

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.